From the Drudge Report:
CNN President Jeff Zucker is actively persuing FOX star Megyn Kelly to anchor 8 or 9 PM on his network, the DRUDGE REPORT has learned. And Kelly might just say, YES!
"He is moving the Himalayan mountains to get her," a top insider explains. "But they are tripped up on money. He simply can't pay her the $20 million a year FOX has on the table."
Kelly's contract is up in July 2017....
Link: http://drudgereport.com/
------
Why wait, Megyn?
Go now. And take James and Lachlan with you.
Now that would be special! PB
Thursday, December 1, 2016
Thursday, October 6, 2016
Working Class White Males Falling Behind ... honestly, is anyone surprised?
Sentier Research, an economics research firm, recently published a study called "Working Class White Males Falling Behind."
The study uses the period from 1996, four years into Bill Clinton's presidency, to 2014, six years into Barack Obama's presidency.
To observe how far "Working Class White Males" have fallen behind in their income, the study looked at men who were between 25 to 44 years old in 1996.
Then the study, jumping ahead 18 years, looked at how much they were earning in 2014.
So, the 25 year old (from 1996) turned age 43 (in 2014.)
The 44 year old (from 1996) turned age 62 (in 2014.)
The study states that the men with just high school degrees did not do well over that time period. Men with college degrees did much, much better. 18 years is a long chunk of time during a man's earning capacity. Take a look:
In 1996, the working class group, ages 25 to 43, averaged $40,362.
In 2014, they had lost 9 percent of their income to $38,787.
What about the college degree guys?
"White male college graduates 25 to 44 in 1996 had a comparable income per cohort member amount of $77,209 in 1996.
That figure rose to $94,601 in 2014 (23 percent higher)..."
These are averages, of course. Beyond the income averages, what does this study really tell us?
Consider that of all the working men I know without college degrees, who are 'white' as the study identifies them, I don't know any who would describe himself as a Working Class White Male.
What is he really?
He's a guy who works for a living. He's got a job. Or he lost his good job and took the next best thing. Or he's looking while working part time or just waiting because no one will hire him.
He wants things to get better. Yet, it's easy - and legitimate - to worry.
It's one thing to study and discuss a trend, but it is completely different to live the trend.
How many of these guys do you know?
They can be found all over the place. Go ahead, talk to them. Ask them how they are doing.
Ask them about their work; about jobs; about their families; about how far their paychecks go; whether someone else in the house works; about how their kids' kids are doing; about their neighborhoods; whether they go to church; about their cars.
Finally, if you do take time to talk to someone in that 'class' of people, decide whether what you see in the media accurately matches how they - Working Class White Males - describe and actually live their lives.
None of them think of themselves as a statistical category. Most think of themselves as American.
In this link - http://sentierresearch.com/index.html - you can read the press release about the study, or purchase the study.
Then think about this 2016 election. Which party for decades told us they care about the working man? PB
------
The study uses the period from 1996, four years into Bill Clinton's presidency, to 2014, six years into Barack Obama's presidency.
To observe how far "Working Class White Males" have fallen behind in their income, the study looked at men who were between 25 to 44 years old in 1996.
Then the study, jumping ahead 18 years, looked at how much they were earning in 2014.
So, the 25 year old (from 1996) turned age 43 (in 2014.)
The 44 year old (from 1996) turned age 62 (in 2014.)
The study states that the men with just high school degrees did not do well over that time period. Men with college degrees did much, much better. 18 years is a long chunk of time during a man's earning capacity. Take a look:
In 1996, the working class group, ages 25 to 43, averaged $40,362.
In 2014, they had lost 9 percent of their income to $38,787.
What about the college degree guys?
"White male college graduates 25 to 44 in 1996 had a comparable income per cohort member amount of $77,209 in 1996.
That figure rose to $94,601 in 2014 (23 percent higher)..."
These are averages, of course. Beyond the income averages, what does this study really tell us?
Consider that of all the working men I know without college degrees, who are 'white' as the study identifies them, I don't know any who would describe himself as a Working Class White Male.
What is he really?
He's a guy who works for a living. He's got a job. Or he lost his good job and took the next best thing. Or he's looking while working part time or just waiting because no one will hire him.
He wants things to get better. Yet, it's easy - and legitimate - to worry.
It's one thing to study and discuss a trend, but it is completely different to live the trend.
How many of these guys do you know?
They can be found all over the place. Go ahead, talk to them. Ask them how they are doing.
Ask them about their work; about jobs; about their families; about how far their paychecks go; whether someone else in the house works; about how their kids' kids are doing; about their neighborhoods; whether they go to church; about their cars.
Finally, if you do take time to talk to someone in that 'class' of people, decide whether what you see in the media accurately matches how they - Working Class White Males - describe and actually live their lives.
None of them think of themselves as a statistical category. Most think of themselves as American.
In this link - http://sentierresearch.com/index.html - you can read the press release about the study, or purchase the study.
Then think about this 2016 election. Which party for decades told us they care about the working man? PB
------
Thursday, September 22, 2016
How's that High School Diploma Treating You?
Well. The world does separate people based on talent, skills, focus and motivation.
Yes, it separates people in many other ways: looks, attitude, friendliness, anger issues, etc.
But talent, drive, achievement and persistence are always a good mix - and it doesn't really matter what you look like, or if you're shy or shallow, or kind of weird.
Other people's opinions mean little when you got the right mix.
Or, maybe smart, successful, and powerful people (like CEOs) can get it wrong.
Is that right? PB
------
From Recode.com:
Ex-Googler Sebastian Thrun says the going rate for self-driving talent is $10 million per person
Now he wants to train more engineers for the fast-growing industry, since there are simply not enough.
When Sebastian Thrun started working on self-driving cars at Google in 2007, few people outside of the company took him seriously.
“I can tell you very senior CEOs of major American car companies would shake my hand and turn away because I wasn’t worth talking to,” said Thrun, now the co-founder and CEO of online higher education startup Udacity, in an interview with Recode earlier this week.
A little less than a decade later, dozens of self-driving startups have cropped up while automakers around the world clamor, wallet in hand, to secure their place in the fast-moving world of fully automated transportation.
And these companies are hungry for talent and skill sets many don't have.
“Uber has just bought a half-a-year-old company [Otto] with 70 employees for almost $700 million,” Thrun said. “If you look at GM, they spent $1 billion on its acquisition of Cruise. These are mostly talent acquisitions. The going rate for talent these days is $10 million.”
Thrun means per person, a lofty number which is likely to be getting even larger with time and even more demand...
------
Link: http://www.recode.net/2016/9/17/12943214/sebastian-thrun-self-driving-talent-pool
Yes, it separates people in many other ways: looks, attitude, friendliness, anger issues, etc.
But talent, drive, achievement and persistence are always a good mix - and it doesn't really matter what you look like, or if you're shy or shallow, or kind of weird.
Other people's opinions mean little when you got the right mix.
Or, maybe smart, successful, and powerful people (like CEOs) can get it wrong.
Is that right? PB
------
From Recode.com:
Ex-Googler Sebastian Thrun says the going rate for self-driving talent is $10 million per person
Now he wants to train more engineers for the fast-growing industry, since there are simply not enough.
When Sebastian Thrun started working on self-driving cars at Google in 2007, few people outside of the company took him seriously.
“I can tell you very senior CEOs of major American car companies would shake my hand and turn away because I wasn’t worth talking to,” said Thrun, now the co-founder and CEO of online higher education startup Udacity, in an interview with Recode earlier this week.
A little less than a decade later, dozens of self-driving startups have cropped up while automakers around the world clamor, wallet in hand, to secure their place in the fast-moving world of fully automated transportation.
And these companies are hungry for talent and skill sets many don't have.
“Uber has just bought a half-a-year-old company [Otto] with 70 employees for almost $700 million,” Thrun said. “If you look at GM, they spent $1 billion on its acquisition of Cruise. These are mostly talent acquisitions. The going rate for talent these days is $10 million.”
Thrun means per person, a lofty number which is likely to be getting even larger with time and even more demand...
------
Link: http://www.recode.net/2016/9/17/12943214/sebastian-thrun-self-driving-talent-pool
Thursday, September 15, 2016
NYT: Economy Remains Fragile for Many
Good for many, but not for most Americans. Why kind of economy is that?
If we can't take care of our working class, our struggling lower middle class, and at the same time we flood our nation with low skill immigrants brought in past our open borders for political purposes - what then?
Who gets it? There are many attempts to cover it in the media. Below is one from the New York Times.
But most of the reporting isolates the economic struggles as if Washington's policies and politics have no blame. The solutions typically point to more spending by government.
This viewpoint from the media and the partisan hacks that control most of the media is tiresome.
Most voters, I think, understand the truth of the phony economy with its limited prosperity. Obviously, we'll find out in November what the voters decide to do about it. PB
------
From the New York Times online:
If we can't take care of our working class, our struggling lower middle class, and at the same time we flood our nation with low skill immigrants brought in past our open borders for political purposes - what then?
Who gets it? There are many attempts to cover it in the media. Below is one from the New York Times.
But most of the reporting isolates the economic struggles as if Washington's policies and politics have no blame. The solutions typically point to more spending by government.
This viewpoint from the media and the partisan hacks that control most of the media is tiresome.
Most voters, I think, understand the truth of the phony economy with its limited prosperity. Obviously, we'll find out in November what the voters decide to do about it. PB
------
From the New York Times online:
The
eye-popping improvement in economic fortunes last year raises the
question: If incomes are up and poverty is down, why is Donald J.
Trump’s message of economic decay resonating so broadly?
The
answer is in plain sight.
While the economy finally is moving in the
right direction, the real incomes of most American households still are
smaller than in the late 1990s.
And large swaths of the country — rural
America, industrial centers in the Rust Belt and Appalachia — are
lagging behind.
“We
ain’t feeling too much of all that economic growth that I heard was
going on, patting themselves on the back,” said Ralph Kingan, the mayor
of Wright, Wyo. “It ain’t out in the West.”
That bleak reality helps to explain why the good news the Census Bureau issued Tuesday
about a rise in household income was greeted gleefully by economists
but is unlikely to change the complexion of the presidential race...
Yet
the repeated assertions by Mr. Trump, the Republican nominee, that the
middle class is being decimated and the economy is in decline ring true
to his supporters.
Many Americans, even those who are prospering, remain
pessimistic about the fragile recovery.
Hillary Clinton, his Democratic
rival, has been careful to acknowledge the economy’s problems alongside
its progress.
The
economic dislocations of recent decades may be contributing to the
polarization of the electorate, according to research by David Autor, an
economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
By emphasizing
the nation’s economic troubles, the candidates are going where the
voters are...
Last week, 26 percent of people surveyed in Gallup’s poll of Americans’
confidence in the economy rated current economic conditions as excellent
or good, while 30 percent labeled them poor.
Thirty-seven percent of
those surveyed said their economic outlook was “getting better” compared
with 57 percent who said it was “getting worse...”
------
Monday, September 12, 2016
Older & jobless - U.S. recovery's forgotten story
A writer at Reuters says millions of older workers - 45+, 55+, 65+ - are suffering from lack of work, lower wages, and age discrimination.
That kind of 'age' discrimination is tough to prove.
Yes, employers want workers with skills.
What is likely happening is that the older job seeker's resume reveals a great deal, especially the age of that candidate.
A resume that shows what skills a worker possesses must also reveal when those skills were acquired.
Desirable skills and mature work habits often develop over time. Unfortunately, it is relatively easy to filter out older workers simply from examining their resumes.
Why would employers avoid hiring older workers?
Costs.
So, apart from valuable skills, 50 somethings and those older bring more experience, but with that they often bring along costly health related issues that grow larger over time.
The complaints about not finding workers with skills is a false complaint.
It is about paying for those skills plus the attached fear that the health costs of that worker might cost too much. PB
------
From columnist Mark Miller at Reuters.com:
Six years after the Great Recession ended, jobless older workers are the forgotten story of the economic recovery.
U.S. employers are creating hundreds of thousands of new jobs every month, but millions of older workers who want a job cannot find work.
The economic data documenting the problem is clear.
So is one of the most important causes: age discrimination. Consider the government jobs report released late last week...
If you add in workers holding part-time jobs who would rather be working full time, and unemployed workers who have recently given up on seeking work, the jobless rate for older workers last month was 8.7 percent...
Further, if you add jobless workers who gave up looking after more than four weeks, the 55-plus unemployment rate is a whopping 12 percent.
Looked at another way, 2.5 million older Americans want a job but do not have one.
Age discrimination is illegal under the Age Discrimination in Employment Act of 1967.
But most of the complaints filed with the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission focus on age-bias terminations rather than hiring - simply because hiring discrimination is so difficult to prove.
Yet two-thirds of older workers believe age discrimination occurs in the workplace, according to a 2013 survey by AARP...
[In another] recent study ... researchers sent out 40,000 dummy job applications that included signals on the job-seekers’ ages, and then monitored the response rates.
...when older displaced workers do find new jobs, they typically go back to work with about 75 percent of their former pay.
These income disruptions play havoc with retirement plans...
Lost income in the decade leading to retirement can cut into future Social Security earnings by reducing the credits used to calculate a worker’s benefits.
It also can force workers to file for benefits early, sharply reducing lifetime benefits...
------
Link: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-column-miller-unemployment-idUSKCN11E297
That kind of 'age' discrimination is tough to prove.
Yes, employers want workers with skills.
What is likely happening is that the older job seeker's resume reveals a great deal, especially the age of that candidate.
A resume that shows what skills a worker possesses must also reveal when those skills were acquired.
Desirable skills and mature work habits often develop over time. Unfortunately, it is relatively easy to filter out older workers simply from examining their resumes.
Why would employers avoid hiring older workers?
Costs.
So, apart from valuable skills, 50 somethings and those older bring more experience, but with that they often bring along costly health related issues that grow larger over time.
The complaints about not finding workers with skills is a false complaint.
It is about paying for those skills plus the attached fear that the health costs of that worker might cost too much. PB
------
From columnist Mark Miller at Reuters.com:
Six years after the Great Recession ended, jobless older workers are the forgotten story of the economic recovery.
U.S. employers are creating hundreds of thousands of new jobs every month, but millions of older workers who want a job cannot find work.
The economic data documenting the problem is clear.
So is one of the most important causes: age discrimination. Consider the government jobs report released late last week...
If you add in workers holding part-time jobs who would rather be working full time, and unemployed workers who have recently given up on seeking work, the jobless rate for older workers last month was 8.7 percent...
Further, if you add jobless workers who gave up looking after more than four weeks, the 55-plus unemployment rate is a whopping 12 percent.
Looked at another way, 2.5 million older Americans want a job but do not have one.
Age discrimination is illegal under the Age Discrimination in Employment Act of 1967.
But most of the complaints filed with the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission focus on age-bias terminations rather than hiring - simply because hiring discrimination is so difficult to prove.
Yet two-thirds of older workers believe age discrimination occurs in the workplace, according to a 2013 survey by AARP...
[In another] recent study ... researchers sent out 40,000 dummy job applications that included signals on the job-seekers’ ages, and then monitored the response rates.
They measured callback rates for various occupations:
- workers age 49-51 applying for administrative positions had a callback rate 29 percent lower than younger workers
- it was 47 percent lower for workers over age 64.
...when older displaced workers do find new jobs, they typically go back to work with about 75 percent of their former pay.
These income disruptions play havoc with retirement plans...
Lost income in the decade leading to retirement can cut into future Social Security earnings by reducing the credits used to calculate a worker’s benefits.
It also can force workers to file for benefits early, sharply reducing lifetime benefits...
------
Link: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-column-miller-unemployment-idUSKCN11E297
Wednesday, September 7, 2016
More Jobs are Open, but Less Workers are Hired
Hey, a conundrum!
That could be referring to a pretty good blended white wine from California labeled Conundrum. But no.
Instead, the conundrum is why hiring has not matched job openings.
Could it be lack of skills?
Could that result from poor public education? Just asking. PB
------
From the Wall Street Journal online:
A New Record for Job Openings Deepens Mystery Over Lack of Hiring
Openings climbed to 5.9 million in July while the pace of hiring was unchanged at 5.2 million
One of the labor market’s biggest mysteries just got deeper: The number of job openings available at the end of July climbed to a new record of 5.9 million.
Yet the number of people actually being hired into one of those jobs was 5.2 million for the second month in a row.
The number of unemployed workers per job opening has fallen to 1.3, the lowest since 2001.
What would normally sound like good news—abundant jobs—is tempered by the fact that people simply aren’t being hired into the positions at rates like in the past.
About 300,000 fewer people are being hired each month compared with the pace reached in February.
And during the entire economic recovery, the U.S. has yet to notch a month of hiring that matches the pace seen at the heights of the middle of last decade or the early 2000s...
Many theories have been offered to explain the gap between job openings and actual hiring.
It could be workers lack the skills for available jobs or that employers have become too picky, or that available workers and available jobs are in different geographies...
------
Link: http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/09/07/a-new-record-for-job-openings-deepens-mystery-over-lack-of-hiring/
That could be referring to a pretty good blended white wine from California labeled Conundrum. But no.
Instead, the conundrum is why hiring has not matched job openings.
Could it be lack of skills?
Could that result from poor public education? Just asking. PB
------
From the Wall Street Journal online:
A New Record for Job Openings Deepens Mystery Over Lack of Hiring
Openings climbed to 5.9 million in July while the pace of hiring was unchanged at 5.2 million
One of the labor market’s biggest mysteries just got deeper: The number of job openings available at the end of July climbed to a new record of 5.9 million.
Yet the number of people actually being hired into one of those jobs was 5.2 million for the second month in a row.
The number of unemployed workers per job opening has fallen to 1.3, the lowest since 2001.
What would normally sound like good news—abundant jobs—is tempered by the fact that people simply aren’t being hired into the positions at rates like in the past.
About 300,000 fewer people are being hired each month compared with the pace reached in February.
And during the entire economic recovery, the U.S. has yet to notch a month of hiring that matches the pace seen at the heights of the middle of last decade or the early 2000s...
Many theories have been offered to explain the gap between job openings and actual hiring.
It could be workers lack the skills for available jobs or that employers have become too picky, or that available workers and available jobs are in different geographies...
------
Link: http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/09/07/a-new-record-for-job-openings-deepens-mystery-over-lack-of-hiring/
NPR: An Economic Mystery: Why Are Men Leaving The Workforce?
This is not new, but it should remain in the news.
There is a deep social and economic problem in America.
There has a been a massive deterioration in employment, especially among men, and worst of all among black men.
The line that sums it all up: "these men aren't even counted among the jobless, because they aren't seeking work..."
The failed politics and policies of progressive ideology is mostly to blame, but there has been no leadership from either party that has been effective in connecting the dots.
Jeb Bush finessing Common Core?
Senate Democrats and Democrat members of Congress blaming others but themselves?
At least the clowns have enjoyed steady work! PB
------
From NPR comes this report:
Millions of men in their prime working years have dropped out of the workforce — meaning they aren't working or even looking for a job.
It's a trend that's held true for decades and has economists puzzled.
In the 1960s, nearly 100 percent of men between the ages of 25 and 54 worked. That's fallen over the decades.
In a recent report, President Obama's Council of Economic Advisers said 83 percent of men in the prime working ages of 25-54 who were not in the labor force had not worked in the previous year.
So, essentially, 10 million men are missing from the workforce.
"One in six prime-age guys has no job; it's kind of worse than it was in the depression in 1940," says Nicholas Eberstadt, an economic and demographic researcher at American Enterprise Institute who wrote the book Men Without Work: America's Invisible Crisis.
He says these men aren't even counted among the jobless, because they aren't seeking work...
------
Link: http://www.npr.org/2016/09/06/492849471/an-economic-mystery-why-are-men-leaving-the-workforce?
There is a deep social and economic problem in America.
There has a been a massive deterioration in employment, especially among men, and worst of all among black men.
The line that sums it all up: "these men aren't even counted among the jobless, because they aren't seeking work..."
The failed politics and policies of progressive ideology is mostly to blame, but there has been no leadership from either party that has been effective in connecting the dots.
Jeb Bush finessing Common Core?
Senate Democrats and Democrat members of Congress blaming others but themselves?
At least the clowns have enjoyed steady work! PB
------
From NPR comes this report:
Millions of men in their prime working years have dropped out of the workforce — meaning they aren't working or even looking for a job.
It's a trend that's held true for decades and has economists puzzled.
In the 1960s, nearly 100 percent of men between the ages of 25 and 54 worked. That's fallen over the decades.
In a recent report, President Obama's Council of Economic Advisers said 83 percent of men in the prime working ages of 25-54 who were not in the labor force had not worked in the previous year.
So, essentially, 10 million men are missing from the workforce.
"One in six prime-age guys has no job; it's kind of worse than it was in the depression in 1940," says Nicholas Eberstadt, an economic and demographic researcher at American Enterprise Institute who wrote the book Men Without Work: America's Invisible Crisis.
He says these men aren't even counted among the jobless, because they aren't seeking work...
------
Link: http://www.npr.org/2016/09/06/492849471/an-economic-mystery-why-are-men-leaving-the-workforce?
Monday, September 5, 2016
"What are politicians get wrong" - who wrote this headline?
An opinion piece on FoxNews.com had the above headline.
Our politicians get wrong many things.
Our headline writers need to do a better job! PB
Our politicians get wrong many things.
Our headline writers need to do a better job! PB
Thursday, September 1, 2016
Warren Buffett: Mr. Clean Market Manipulator
Pure as snow. Or pure as Ivory soap. (Wait, that soap belongs to a different company.)
Or is he simply Mr. Clean? (Well, that is how most of the Slurpy Media likes to portray him.)
Or maybe just about as pure and innocent as any Crony Billionaire manipulating the markets for personal gain can be called clean.
Yep, that's him: Warren Buffett. A real billionaire bigshot.
Warren Buffett, rich and powerful and phony as can be, does move the markets in his favor to protect advantages that other investors will never have. (It's great work if you can work it and, boy o billionaire boy, Buffett works it real bad!)
Maybe we should put it this way to drive home the point: Warren Buffett aka Mr. Clean aka Mr. Pay More Taxes for Everyone But Me rigs the markets so he can get overwhelming advantages not available to anyone else.
But, as it sometimes happens, Master Market Manipulator Warren Buffett got caught.
(Hey! Btw, guess who Warren Buffett supports for President?
Ms. Turn $1,000 into $100,000 Market Manipulator Who Did It All By Herself. Or, just asking, was she simply a Bond Girl named Favors Galore?)
So, yes, Billionaire Buffett got caught.
Last week, the Wall Street Journal wrote an article that explained and showed charts how Warren Buffett's Special Magic rigged Dow Chemical shares in the stock market for his personal advantage à la Favors Galore.
(There's got to be a Hollywood script ready to go! The Big Long?)
Yesterday, the Wall Street Journal followed up with a story about a Yale professor saying, Yepper, Warren Buffett's Special Market Manipulation and Price Rigging Magic was indeed happening.
You will have to read the story to understand how the share prices of Dow Chemical were being manipulated in the open market. See the link below.
Once the spotlight is on, though, the manipulation is painfully obvious.
Yes, Warren Buffett is a Billionaire who Manipulates Markets and always gets Special One of a Kind Deals. That is well known.
In this case, he's got a Large $3 Billion stake that enjoys special favor.
(You know how politicians like to say we need to take care of all of our stakeholders. Billionaire Buffett is a BIG STAKEHOLDER. Or, as his favorite candidate might say: is that a big stake you're holding and why are you so happy to see me?)
Mr. Clean? No. Not by a long shot. Maybe he should be called Mr. Dirty Warren Buffett. Guess that depends on what your definition of dirt is. Ahh, speaking of which, how about Mr. Depends?
Nonetheless, Warren Buffett seems to have a lot in common with shady characters of shady ethics who seemingly possess skills that magically turn so little into so much.
See the WSJ story here:
Link: http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/08/31/dow-chemicals-1-in-1000-stock-action-works-in-warren-buffetts-favor/
Or is he simply Mr. Clean? (Well, that is how most of the Slurpy Media likes to portray him.)
Or maybe just about as pure and innocent as any Crony Billionaire manipulating the markets for personal gain can be called clean.
Yep, that's him: Warren Buffett. A real billionaire bigshot.
Warren Buffett, rich and powerful and phony as can be, does move the markets in his favor to protect advantages that other investors will never have. (It's great work if you can work it and, boy o billionaire boy, Buffett works it real bad!)
Maybe we should put it this way to drive home the point: Warren Buffett aka Mr. Clean aka Mr. Pay More Taxes for Everyone But Me rigs the markets so he can get overwhelming advantages not available to anyone else.
But, as it sometimes happens, Master Market Manipulator Warren Buffett got caught.
(Hey! Btw, guess who Warren Buffett supports for President?
Ms. Turn $1,000 into $100,000 Market Manipulator Who Did It All By Herself. Or, just asking, was she simply a Bond Girl named Favors Galore?)
So, yes, Billionaire Buffett got caught.
Last week, the Wall Street Journal wrote an article that explained and showed charts how Warren Buffett's Special Magic rigged Dow Chemical shares in the stock market for his personal advantage à la Favors Galore.
(There's got to be a Hollywood script ready to go! The Big Long?)
Yesterday, the Wall Street Journal followed up with a story about a Yale professor saying, Yepper, Warren Buffett's Special Market Manipulation and Price Rigging Magic was indeed happening.
You will have to read the story to understand how the share prices of Dow Chemical were being manipulated in the open market. See the link below.
Once the spotlight is on, though, the manipulation is painfully obvious.
Yes, Warren Buffett is a Billionaire who Manipulates Markets and always gets Special One of a Kind Deals. That is well known.
In this case, he's got a Large $3 Billion stake that enjoys special favor.
(You know how politicians like to say we need to take care of all of our stakeholders. Billionaire Buffett is a BIG STAKEHOLDER. Or, as his favorite candidate might say: is that a big stake you're holding and why are you so happy to see me?)
Mr. Clean? No. Not by a long shot. Maybe he should be called Mr. Dirty Warren Buffett. Guess that depends on what your definition of dirt is. Ahh, speaking of which, how about Mr. Depends?
Nonetheless, Warren Buffett seems to have a lot in common with shady characters of shady ethics who seemingly possess skills that magically turn so little into so much.
See the WSJ story here:
Link: http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/08/31/dow-chemicals-1-in-1000-stock-action-works-in-warren-buffetts-favor/
Tuesday, August 23, 2016
Bloomberg.com: Pentagon Takes Aim at Bomb-Carrying Consumer Drones
More awareness about one of the deadliest "reality" shows that could hit American life: ISIS coming to America.
A Marine general, talking about battlefield conditions, says someone can get a drone by going "down to Sam's Club and buy [it] for $400."
No kidding. Think about all the people who hate America coming openly and anonymously into our country.
15 years ago very bad people, who had visas, stayed in the U.S. and did what they intended to do: they hijacked airplanes and flew them into buildings and killed thousands of Americans. By the way, our media never show those images anymore.
So, yes, the general is rightly concerned about drones affecting our soldiers in war.
This same awareness about the deadly capability of drones operating in the U.S. by enemies who hate America is something else for all of us to take very seriously. That is, we need to worry about it today.
Imagine a drone in your neighborhood dropping a bomb at a school event, a mall, a football game in the fall at an outdoor stadium, a festival at a church, or anywhere where we live, work and pray.
How do we really know ISIS hasn't already inserted hundreds of future killers into our country?
Just an oblique reference to our November elections: Is occasional bad language in a political campaign worse than the real potential of deadly drones dropping bombs or toxic material throughout all the places we live, shop, gather, play or pray? What is more important to pay attention to? PB
------
From Bloomberg.com:
They’re cheap, they’re light, and they can carry a small bomb: The commercial drone is essentially a new terror gadget for organizations such as Hezbollah, Islamic State, or anyone else looking to wreak havoc on a budget.
“That’s the same quad copter you can get on Groupon or go down to Sam’s Club and buy for $400,” U.S. Marine Corps Commandant General Robert Neller said last week at a Washington forum on future warfare.
The elusive nature of small drones is one reason the federal government has designated the District of Columbia a “national defense airspace” and prohibited drone flights there. A recent spate of drone-related incidents, including one last year in which a drone crashed on the White House lawn, probably didn’t help, either.
But the problem is no longer about enthusiasts with a bad sense of direction.
Weaponized to various degrees of sophistication, such unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are now being used in the Syrian civil war and along parts of Lebanese and Syrian borders with Israel, where Hezbollah holds sway.
“There has been an increasing concern in the military and a wider acceptance of how pernicious this problem is going to be, moving forward,” says Andrew Metrick, an intelligence security analyst at the Center for Strategic & International Studies. “From a U.S. and allies perspective, we haven’t had to think about how to fight where we don’t have total aerial supremacy....”
...A Marine or soldier who spots a drone overhead would typically shoot it down, but smaller drones can operate surreptitiously and elude radar since they are barely larger than a bird.
Their small motors make acoustic detection enormously hard, and while wide-area camera sensors deployed on the ground might detect a drone, they usually require large computational resources in the field.
One solution is an electronic signal jammer to prevent a drone’s operator from flying within a certain vicinity, an approach that U.S. forces have studied....
“When was the last time an American military force worried about being bombed by enemy air? World War II?” Neller said. “So what capabilities do we have to defend ourselves from enemy air or enemy unmanned air?”
Such drones also represent only one facet of a future battlefield on which the U.S. military will no longer enjoy complete dominance, the general said. Technology has given potential adversaries new advantages, especially as the U.S. has “developed a system of war fighting that is very dependent upon the internet, the network, and space.”
All three are vulnerable because they establish an electronic signature as they operate. Mobile phones, for example, put soldiers in harm's way in the new digital conflict zone, because a drone might home in on them and explode...
------
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-23/the-pentagon-takes-aim-at-bomb-carrying-consumer-drones
A Marine general, talking about battlefield conditions, says someone can get a drone by going "down to Sam's Club and buy [it] for $400."
No kidding. Think about all the people who hate America coming openly and anonymously into our country.
15 years ago very bad people, who had visas, stayed in the U.S. and did what they intended to do: they hijacked airplanes and flew them into buildings and killed thousands of Americans. By the way, our media never show those images anymore.
So, yes, the general is rightly concerned about drones affecting our soldiers in war.
This same awareness about the deadly capability of drones operating in the U.S. by enemies who hate America is something else for all of us to take very seriously. That is, we need to worry about it today.
Imagine a drone in your neighborhood dropping a bomb at a school event, a mall, a football game in the fall at an outdoor stadium, a festival at a church, or anywhere where we live, work and pray.
How do we really know ISIS hasn't already inserted hundreds of future killers into our country?
Just an oblique reference to our November elections: Is occasional bad language in a political campaign worse than the real potential of deadly drones dropping bombs or toxic material throughout all the places we live, shop, gather, play or pray? What is more important to pay attention to? PB
------
From Bloomberg.com:
They’re cheap, they’re light, and they can carry a small bomb: The commercial drone is essentially a new terror gadget for organizations such as Hezbollah, Islamic State, or anyone else looking to wreak havoc on a budget.
“That’s the same quad copter you can get on Groupon or go down to Sam’s Club and buy for $400,” U.S. Marine Corps Commandant General Robert Neller said last week at a Washington forum on future warfare.
The elusive nature of small drones is one reason the federal government has designated the District of Columbia a “national defense airspace” and prohibited drone flights there. A recent spate of drone-related incidents, including one last year in which a drone crashed on the White House lawn, probably didn’t help, either.
But the problem is no longer about enthusiasts with a bad sense of direction.
Weaponized to various degrees of sophistication, such unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are now being used in the Syrian civil war and along parts of Lebanese and Syrian borders with Israel, where Hezbollah holds sway.
“There has been an increasing concern in the military and a wider acceptance of how pernicious this problem is going to be, moving forward,” says Andrew Metrick, an intelligence security analyst at the Center for Strategic & International Studies. “From a U.S. and allies perspective, we haven’t had to think about how to fight where we don’t have total aerial supremacy....”
...A Marine or soldier who spots a drone overhead would typically shoot it down, but smaller drones can operate surreptitiously and elude radar since they are barely larger than a bird.
Their small motors make acoustic detection enormously hard, and while wide-area camera sensors deployed on the ground might detect a drone, they usually require large computational resources in the field.
One solution is an electronic signal jammer to prevent a drone’s operator from flying within a certain vicinity, an approach that U.S. forces have studied....
“When was the last time an American military force worried about being bombed by enemy air? World War II?” Neller said. “So what capabilities do we have to defend ourselves from enemy air or enemy unmanned air?”
Such drones also represent only one facet of a future battlefield on which the U.S. military will no longer enjoy complete dominance, the general said. Technology has given potential adversaries new advantages, especially as the U.S. has “developed a system of war fighting that is very dependent upon the internet, the network, and space.”
All three are vulnerable because they establish an electronic signature as they operate. Mobile phones, for example, put soldiers in harm's way in the new digital conflict zone, because a drone might home in on them and explode...
------
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-23/the-pentagon-takes-aim-at-bomb-carrying-consumer-drones
Thursday, August 11, 2016
WSJ: It's true. China has hurt the working class.
What animates the 2016 campaign? I mean, what is important to voters?
Trade with China has hurt - and continues to hurt - the American working class. PB
------
From the Wall Street Journal online:
As import competition surged and displaced manufacturing workers, the U.S. labor force itself was becoming less adaptable, and political blowback was brewing.
Here is a summary of some of the most important new research in these areas:
Less Flexible Labor Markets
U.S. workers and firms have long been known among scholars and policy makers for being flexible and able to adapt to shocks and changes in the economy.
But some researchers suggest that labor markets have become less dynamic since 2000, and even more so since 2007, making them less adaptable just as the shock of trade with China hit and then worsened...
China Shock
The shock of trade with China was different than the shock of U.S. trade with other countries such as Mexico, Japan and Asian “tiger” economies such as Taiwan and Hong Kong, research shows.
The scale of import competition from China was immense, dislocating millions of U.S. manufacturing workers, who had trouble adjusting and finding new work...
Political Blowback
The shock of trade with China also has had political repercussions. Those include polarizing congressional districts, increasing voter turnout and possibly helping Democrats...
In the past, Democrats benefited from taking positions that restrict trade and offer assistance to people exposed to trade shocks.
The researchers’ analysis didn’t include the results of the 2016 presidential primaries, which resulted in Donald Trump as the Republican presidential nominee.
Mr. Trump has taken tough-on-trade positions.
------
Link: http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/08/11/why-china-trade-hit-u-s-workers-unexpectedly-hard/
Trade with China has hurt - and continues to hurt - the American working class. PB
------
From the Wall Street Journal online:
Why China Trade Hit U.S. Workers Unexpectedly Hard
A growing body of academic research shows the U.S. workforce was hit harder than expected by trade with China and was potentially unprepared for the shock.
As import competition surged and displaced manufacturing workers, the U.S. labor force itself was becoming less adaptable, and political blowback was brewing.
Here is a summary of some of the most important new research in these areas:
Less Flexible Labor Markets
U.S. workers and firms have long been known among scholars and policy makers for being flexible and able to adapt to shocks and changes in the economy.
But some researchers suggest that labor markets have become less dynamic since 2000, and even more so since 2007, making them less adaptable just as the shock of trade with China hit and then worsened...
China Shock
The shock of trade with China was different than the shock of U.S. trade with other countries such as Mexico, Japan and Asian “tiger” economies such as Taiwan and Hong Kong, research shows.
The scale of import competition from China was immense, dislocating millions of U.S. manufacturing workers, who had trouble adjusting and finding new work...
Political Blowback
The shock of trade with China also has had political repercussions. Those include polarizing congressional districts, increasing voter turnout and possibly helping Democrats...
In the past, Democrats benefited from taking positions that restrict trade and offer assistance to people exposed to trade shocks.
The researchers’ analysis didn’t include the results of the 2016 presidential primaries, which resulted in Donald Trump as the Republican presidential nominee.
Mr. Trump has taken tough-on-trade positions.
------
Link: http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/08/11/why-china-trade-hit-u-s-workers-unexpectedly-hard/
Wednesday, August 10, 2016
WSJ: Lopsided Housing Rebound Leaves Millions of People Out in the Cold
It's good if you already got it; otherwise, not so promising if you got stuck during the Great Recession. That appears to be the case with home ownership.
The Haves and the Have Nots appear to be a permanent condition in our society. The underperformance of the economy for the broad middle class has done long term damage to millions of Americans. Recent news about home ownership confirms this damage.
Something is deeply wrong in America. Working class Americans struggle and few seem to notice in Washington D.C., the east and left coasts, and most of the media.
But, the low interest rate environment is a good thing for people who can afford to buy a new home, or sell their existing home. Low interest rates have benefitted the billionaires, high wage earners, and corporations. Good for them.
However, has the train left with a quarter of the cars in the back detached and stuck at the station? It looks like it. If you are still attached to the train, the ride seems great. Those stuck hearing a fading clickety clack have a different understanding and feeling. The overall feeling is isolation. PB
The following excerpt is from today's Wall Street Journal.
------
From www.WSJ.com:
The housing recovery that began in 2012 has lifted the overall market but left behind a broad swath of the middle class, threatening to create a generation of permanent renters and sowing economic anxiety and frustration for millions of Americans.
...Overall prices are now just 2% below the peak reached in July 2006, according to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices.
But most of the price gains, economists said, stem from a lack of fresh supply rather than a surge of buyers.
The pace of new home construction remains at levels typically associated with recessions, while the homeownership rate in the second quarter was at its lowest point since the Census Bureau began tracking quarterly data in 1965 and the share of first-time home purchases remains mired near three-decade lows.
The lopsided recovery has shut out millions of aspiring homeowners who have been forced to rent because of damaged credit, swelling student loans, tough credit standards and a dearth of affordable homes, economists said.
In all, some 200,000 to 300,000 fewer U.S. households are purchasing a new home each year than would during normal market conditions, estimates Ken Rosen, chairman of the Fisher Center of Real Estate and Urban Economics at the University of California at Berkeley...
Anxiety about missed economic opportunities is a key driver of the anti-incumbent anger on both sides of the political spectrum that has shaken up the 2016 election season, helping fuel the insurgent presidential campaigns of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders.
“You have these people who can’t get housing, and it’s turning into this rage,” said Kevin Finkel, executive vice president at Philadelphia-based Resource Real Estate, which owns or manages 25,550 apartments around the U.S.
After peaking in July 2006, the Case-Shiller index plunged 27% over the next six years...
While economists expected the homeownership rate to begin edging up this year, the rate fell to a 51-year low of 62.9% in the second quarter from 63.4% in the same quarter last year.
The rate could fall to 58% or lower by 2050, according to a recent prediction by housing experts Arthur Acolin of the University of Southern California, Laurie Goodman of the Urban Institute and Susan Wachter of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania.
The main reason, they say: mortgage availability.
Lenders chastened by the financial crisis have been fearful of making loans to borrowers with dings on their credit, student debt or credit-card bills, or younger buyers with shorter credit histories.
“I’m not sure that we’ll see some of those conditions change in any material way in the foreseeable future,” said Tim Mayopoulos, the president and chief executive officer of mortgage giant Fannie Mae, in an interview last week.
“Right now our mortgage finance system is still not working well for lower- and middle-income households and first-time buyers,” added Mr. Rosen.
A dearth of home construction, especially at the lower end, is taking a toll.
Nationally, the inventory of homes for sale has dropped more than 37% since 2011, according to Zillow, a real estate information firm. Some of that reflects the clearing away of distressed inventory, but economists said the pendulum has swung toward a housing shortage.
An estimated 1 million new households were formed last year, but only 620,000 new housing units were built, according to the Urban Institute.
An analysis of census data by the Urban Institute showed that all of the net new households formed between 2006 and 2014 were renters rather than owners...
------
Link: http://www.wsj.com/articles/lopsided-housing-rebound-leaves-millions-of-people-out-in-the-cold-1470852996
The Haves and the Have Nots appear to be a permanent condition in our society. The underperformance of the economy for the broad middle class has done long term damage to millions of Americans. Recent news about home ownership confirms this damage.
Something is deeply wrong in America. Working class Americans struggle and few seem to notice in Washington D.C., the east and left coasts, and most of the media.
But, the low interest rate environment is a good thing for people who can afford to buy a new home, or sell their existing home. Low interest rates have benefitted the billionaires, high wage earners, and corporations. Good for them.
However, has the train left with a quarter of the cars in the back detached and stuck at the station? It looks like it. If you are still attached to the train, the ride seems great. Those stuck hearing a fading clickety clack have a different understanding and feeling. The overall feeling is isolation. PB
The following excerpt is from today's Wall Street Journal.
------
From www.WSJ.com:
The housing recovery that began in 2012 has lifted the overall market but left behind a broad swath of the middle class, threatening to create a generation of permanent renters and sowing economic anxiety and frustration for millions of Americans.
...Overall prices are now just 2% below the peak reached in July 2006, according to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices.
But most of the price gains, economists said, stem from a lack of fresh supply rather than a surge of buyers.
The pace of new home construction remains at levels typically associated with recessions, while the homeownership rate in the second quarter was at its lowest point since the Census Bureau began tracking quarterly data in 1965 and the share of first-time home purchases remains mired near three-decade lows.
The lopsided recovery has shut out millions of aspiring homeowners who have been forced to rent because of damaged credit, swelling student loans, tough credit standards and a dearth of affordable homes, economists said.
In all, some 200,000 to 300,000 fewer U.S. households are purchasing a new home each year than would during normal market conditions, estimates Ken Rosen, chairman of the Fisher Center of Real Estate and Urban Economics at the University of California at Berkeley...
Anxiety about missed economic opportunities is a key driver of the anti-incumbent anger on both sides of the political spectrum that has shaken up the 2016 election season, helping fuel the insurgent presidential campaigns of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders.
“You have these people who can’t get housing, and it’s turning into this rage,” said Kevin Finkel, executive vice president at Philadelphia-based Resource Real Estate, which owns or manages 25,550 apartments around the U.S.
After peaking in July 2006, the Case-Shiller index plunged 27% over the next six years...
While economists expected the homeownership rate to begin edging up this year, the rate fell to a 51-year low of 62.9% in the second quarter from 63.4% in the same quarter last year.
The rate could fall to 58% or lower by 2050, according to a recent prediction by housing experts Arthur Acolin of the University of Southern California, Laurie Goodman of the Urban Institute and Susan Wachter of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania.
The main reason, they say: mortgage availability.
Lenders chastened by the financial crisis have been fearful of making loans to borrowers with dings on their credit, student debt or credit-card bills, or younger buyers with shorter credit histories.
“I’m not sure that we’ll see some of those conditions change in any material way in the foreseeable future,” said Tim Mayopoulos, the president and chief executive officer of mortgage giant Fannie Mae, in an interview last week.
“Right now our mortgage finance system is still not working well for lower- and middle-income households and first-time buyers,” added Mr. Rosen.
A dearth of home construction, especially at the lower end, is taking a toll.
Nationally, the inventory of homes for sale has dropped more than 37% since 2011, according to Zillow, a real estate information firm. Some of that reflects the clearing away of distressed inventory, but economists said the pendulum has swung toward a housing shortage.
An estimated 1 million new households were formed last year, but only 620,000 new housing units were built, according to the Urban Institute.
An analysis of census data by the Urban Institute showed that all of the net new households formed between 2006 and 2014 were renters rather than owners...
------
Link: http://www.wsj.com/articles/lopsided-housing-rebound-leaves-millions-of-people-out-in-the-cold-1470852996
Sunday, July 31, 2016
Hey! Who guessed today's headlines last November?
From Drudge Report: AMAZON Drone Terror Panic...
From Drudge Link: We're drone for: Terror fears over Amazon's new flying deliveries
From Drudge Report: AMAZON Drone Terror Panic...
From Drudge Link: We're drone for: Terror fears over Amazon's new flying deliveries
---------------------------------
Monday, November 30, 2015
Amazon: Soon to Conquer Home Delivery? Or Become a Terrorist's BFF?
A drone delivers a package to your home.
Do you tip the drone?
Or will the drone trip you into unforeseen dangers?
Will terrorists learn how to exploit Amazon Prime to deliver explosives, nuclear waste, toxic poisons or baby parts to your backyard?
What kind of security will there be at the Amazon warehouses when bad guys take over and send Amazon Prime delivery drones to your home?
You might receive something you never ordered and would never want in a million years.
What if the Bad Guys work with Google and Facebook - using their deep data profiles that means you will never have privacy ever again - and start eliminating people?
Someone doesn't like Christians, or immigrants, or Republicans, or what?
You have no privacy anymore.
Now that drones can deliver packages to your home, there is little security and nowhere to hide, certainly no way to remain private.
There is no Jack Bauer coming to rescue you.
Let's imagine - this is not hard to do - that Seattle, Silicon Valley and Washington D.C. Power People decide to profile you, vilify you, and target you. Why not deliver a bit of nasty to your backyard or doorstep?
Right now, only Seattle Billionaires know for sure!
The Seattle Billionaire who owns Amazon also owns the Washington Post newspaper.
Google and Facebook can and do control the content and type of news that is delivered to your device.
What happens when bad things happen and the news never gets delivered?
George Orwell somewhere is whistling a tune you will start hearing very soon. PB
Do you tip the drone?
Or will the drone trip you into unforeseen dangers?
Will terrorists learn how to exploit Amazon Prime to deliver explosives, nuclear waste, toxic poisons or baby parts to your backyard?
What kind of security will there be at the Amazon warehouses when bad guys take over and send Amazon Prime delivery drones to your home?
You might receive something you never ordered and would never want in a million years.
What if the Bad Guys work with Google and Facebook - using their deep data profiles that means you will never have privacy ever again - and start eliminating people?
Someone doesn't like Christians, or immigrants, or Republicans, or what?
You have no privacy anymore.
Now that drones can deliver packages to your home, there is little security and nowhere to hide, certainly no way to remain private.
There is no Jack Bauer coming to rescue you.
Let's imagine - this is not hard to do - that Seattle, Silicon Valley and Washington D.C. Power People decide to profile you, vilify you, and target you. Why not deliver a bit of nasty to your backyard or doorstep?
Right now, only Seattle Billionaires know for sure!
The Seattle Billionaire who owns Amazon also owns the Washington Post newspaper.
Google and Facebook can and do control the content and type of news that is delivered to your device.
What happens when bad things happen and the news never gets delivered?
George Orwell somewhere is whistling a tune you will start hearing very soon. PB
Monday, July 18, 2016
Hundreds Of Men Sleeping On Streets For Shot At Plumbers Union Apprenticeship Program
Jobs? Good paying jobs? Protected life time jobs?
How do you get a job like that?
The most telling line of the story: "most are already plumbers looking for a promotion." PB
------
From CBS television in New York City:
Hundreds of young men are sleeping on the streets of Queens Sunday night for a shot at a job.
CBS2’s Ali Bauman reported they are waiting for an application to the Plumbers Union Apprenticeship Program. One thousand applications are handed out in order Monday morning. After tests and interviews, only a percentage are accepted to the five-year program.
“It’s a long shot, so hopefully I get it,” Anthony Hughes said.
Signs on the training center tell applicants not to camp out, but if they listen, they don’t really have a shot, like Mauricio Cruz who showed up Sunday afternoon.
“I walked up, added every chair and three for every tent and came out to 1,226,” Cruz said. “I know I’m after that. It’s insane. I don’t know if I’m gonna wait.”
Many of the applicants waited through the rain on Saturday and the stifling heat on Sunday. Most are already plumbers looking for a promotion.
“The ‘A’ guys top out at $67 an hour. The ‘B’ guys top out at $40 an hour,” Anthony Sala said.
------
Link: http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2016/07/17/plumbers-union-apprenticeship-program/
How do you get a job like that?
The most telling line of the story: "most are already plumbers looking for a promotion." PB
------
From CBS television in New York City:
Hundreds of young men are sleeping on the streets of Queens Sunday night for a shot at a job.
CBS2’s Ali Bauman reported they are waiting for an application to the Plumbers Union Apprenticeship Program. One thousand applications are handed out in order Monday morning. After tests and interviews, only a percentage are accepted to the five-year program.
“It’s a long shot, so hopefully I get it,” Anthony Hughes said.
Signs on the training center tell applicants not to camp out, but if they listen, they don’t really have a shot, like Mauricio Cruz who showed up Sunday afternoon.
“I walked up, added every chair and three for every tent and came out to 1,226,” Cruz said. “I know I’m after that. It’s insane. I don’t know if I’m gonna wait.”
Many of the applicants waited through the rain on Saturday and the stifling heat on Sunday. Most are already plumbers looking for a promotion.
“The ‘A’ guys top out at $67 an hour. The ‘B’ guys top out at $40 an hour,” Anthony Sala said.
------
Link: http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2016/07/17/plumbers-union-apprenticeship-program/
Dilbert: Cop Killers Versus Racists
From the well trained mind of that keen observer with the gimlet eye: Scott Adams.
------
By the way, Scott Adams would like it if you buy his book: https://www.amazon.com/How-Fail-Almost-Everything-Still/dp/1591847745?
From http://blog.dilbert.com/post/147395227526/cop-killers-versus-racists
"Trump’s biggest problem in this election so far is that most racists appear to be on his side. At least it looks that way to the public.
That awkward perception allowed Team Clinton to brand the Trump campaign as the racist team. Clinton’s strategy of racial politics has been effective. I recently blogged that “crooked” beats “racist” every time, meaning that unless something changes, Clinton has the persuasion advantage.
But today we see in the polls that the candidates are effectively tied. What changed?
The biggest change is not the FBI’s decision on Clinton’s email scandal, although that is clearly part of it. To my eyes, the biggest change is that Clinton’s team just became the cop-killing side. At least that’s how it looks to our irrational minds.
Your brain thinks cops are probably Trump supporters (true or not) while you probably see cop-killers as Clinton supporters (true or not). And that means the recent slaughter of five policemen in Dallas changed your mental equation.
Now it seems – to our irrational minds – that we no longer have a contest between crooked and racist.
Now we have a contest between cop-killers and racists. And in that contest, the racists win. That’s because most folks see in themselves at least a little bit of racial bias, but almost none of us see ourselves as cop-killers.
So identity politics now favors racist because the alternative is cop-killer. There aren’t many ways to make peace-loving racists seem like a good thing, but compared to cop-killers, they come out slightly ahead.
You don’t have to like the current situation. I’m just describing it from a persuasion standpoint. I’m not rooting for the racists.
I still think Trump needs to come out clearly and unambiguously against racial politics. And I expect that to happen.
But the police shootings in Dallas probably changed the Clinton brand enough that Trump can glide into the presidency as things stand now, unless there are new developments.
But stay tuned because there are always new developments.
For new readers of this blog, I endorsed Hillary Clinton for my personal safety, because I live in California. It isn’t safe to say good things about Trump’s talent for persuasion when you live where I live. And my policy preferences don’t align with either candidate.
Speaking of personal safety, no one has ever died while reading my book. But I’m sure whatever you are doing instead of reading my book is fine too. But just to be on the safe side, ask your doctor if it is okay to continue not reading my book."
------
Link: http://blog.dilbert.com/post/147395227526/cop-killers-versus-racists
------
By the way, Scott Adams would like it if you buy his book: https://www.amazon.com/How-Fail-Almost-Everything-Still/dp/1591847745?
From http://blog.dilbert.com/post/147395227526/cop-killers-versus-racists
"Trump’s biggest problem in this election so far is that most racists appear to be on his side. At least it looks that way to the public.
That awkward perception allowed Team Clinton to brand the Trump campaign as the racist team. Clinton’s strategy of racial politics has been effective. I recently blogged that “crooked” beats “racist” every time, meaning that unless something changes, Clinton has the persuasion advantage.
But today we see in the polls that the candidates are effectively tied. What changed?
The biggest change is not the FBI’s decision on Clinton’s email scandal, although that is clearly part of it. To my eyes, the biggest change is that Clinton’s team just became the cop-killing side. At least that’s how it looks to our irrational minds.
Your brain thinks cops are probably Trump supporters (true or not) while you probably see cop-killers as Clinton supporters (true or not). And that means the recent slaughter of five policemen in Dallas changed your mental equation.
Now it seems – to our irrational minds – that we no longer have a contest between crooked and racist.
Now we have a contest between cop-killers and racists. And in that contest, the racists win. That’s because most folks see in themselves at least a little bit of racial bias, but almost none of us see ourselves as cop-killers.
So identity politics now favors racist because the alternative is cop-killer. There aren’t many ways to make peace-loving racists seem like a good thing, but compared to cop-killers, they come out slightly ahead.
You don’t have to like the current situation. I’m just describing it from a persuasion standpoint. I’m not rooting for the racists.
I still think Trump needs to come out clearly and unambiguously against racial politics. And I expect that to happen.
But the police shootings in Dallas probably changed the Clinton brand enough that Trump can glide into the presidency as things stand now, unless there are new developments.
But stay tuned because there are always new developments.
For new readers of this blog, I endorsed Hillary Clinton for my personal safety, because I live in California. It isn’t safe to say good things about Trump’s talent for persuasion when you live where I live. And my policy preferences don’t align with either candidate.
Speaking of personal safety, no one has ever died while reading my book. But I’m sure whatever you are doing instead of reading my book is fine too. But just to be on the safe side, ask your doctor if it is okay to continue not reading my book."
------
Link: http://blog.dilbert.com/post/147395227526/cop-killers-versus-racists
Friday, July 8, 2016
287,000 Jobs in June
A turn around? Hopefully. PB
------
From the Associated Press online:
Employers shook off two months of weak hiring by adding 287,000 jobs in June, a robust pace that suggests a resilient U.S. economy recovering from a slump early in the year...
The June hiring spurt marked a sharp improvement from May's dismal showing, when only 11,000 jobs were added, and April's modest gain of 144,000. June's increase was the largest since October 2015...
Even with June's big gain, job growth so far for 2016 trails last year's pace.
Employers added an average of 172,000 jobs a month in the first six months of this year. That's generally enough to lower the unemployment rate, but it's below last year's monthly average of 230,000.
The recent hiring slump had come after the economy grew at a tepid 1.1 percent annual rate in the first three months of the year.
Americans' spending rose at the slowest pace in two years during that time -- a significant drag given that consumer spending drives around 70 percent of the economy...
------
Link: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_ECONOMY?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-07-08-13-28-15
------
From the Associated Press online:
Employers shook off two months of weak hiring by adding 287,000 jobs in June, a robust pace that suggests a resilient U.S. economy recovering from a slump early in the year...
The June hiring spurt marked a sharp improvement from May's dismal showing, when only 11,000 jobs were added, and April's modest gain of 144,000. June's increase was the largest since October 2015...
Even with June's big gain, job growth so far for 2016 trails last year's pace.
Employers added an average of 172,000 jobs a month in the first six months of this year. That's generally enough to lower the unemployment rate, but it's below last year's monthly average of 230,000.
The recent hiring slump had come after the economy grew at a tepid 1.1 percent annual rate in the first three months of the year.
Americans' spending rose at the slowest pace in two years during that time -- a significant drag given that consumer spending drives around 70 percent of the economy...
------
Link: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_ECONOMY?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-07-08-13-28-15
Tuesday, June 28, 2016
Shilling: Oil Is Still Heading to $10 a Barrel
Gary Shilling writing at Bloomberg View:
Back in February 2015, the price of West Texas Intermediate stood at about $52 per barrel, half of its 2014 peak. I argued then that a renewed decline was coming that could drive it below $20, a scenario regarded by oil bulls as unthinkable.
But prices did fall further, dropping all the way to a low of $26 in February. Since then, crude rallied to spend several weeks flirting with $50 per barrel, a level not seen since last year.
But it won't last; I’m sticking to my call for prices to decline anew to $10 to $20 per barrel...
But the world continues to be awash in crude, and American frackers have replaced the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries as the world’s swing producers.
The once-feared oil cartel is, to my mind, pretty much finished as an effective price enforcer.
Even OPEC’s leader, Saudi Arabia, is acknowledging the new reality by quashing recent attempts to freeze output, borrowing from banks and preparing to sell a stake in its Aramco oil company as it tries to find new sources of non-oil revenue...
The price at which major producers chicken out and slash production isn’t determined by the prices needed to balance the budgets of oil producing nations, which are as high as $208 per barrel in Libya and as low as $52 per barrel in Kuwait. Nor is it the "full cycle" or average cost of production that includes drilling costs, overheads, pipelines, etc.
In a price war, the chicken-out point is the price that equals the marginal cost of producing oil from an established well.
Once fracking operations are set up and staffed, leases paid for, drilling underway and pipelines laid, the marginal cost of shale oil for efficient producers in the Permian Basin in Texas is about $10 to $20 per barrel and even lower in the Persian Gulf.
Furthermore, fracking costs continue to fall as productivity improves.
The number of drilling rigs operating in the U.S. continues to drop. But the rigs taken offline are mostly old vertical drillers that drill only one hole per platform, while horizontal rigs -- able to drill 20 to 30 wells per platform like the spokes of a wheel -- increasingly dominate. So output per working rig is accelerating....
------
Link: http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-06-28/why-oil-is-still-headed-as-low-as-10-a-barrel
Back in February 2015, the price of West Texas Intermediate stood at about $52 per barrel, half of its 2014 peak. I argued then that a renewed decline was coming that could drive it below $20, a scenario regarded by oil bulls as unthinkable.
But prices did fall further, dropping all the way to a low of $26 in February. Since then, crude rallied to spend several weeks flirting with $50 per barrel, a level not seen since last year.
But it won't last; I’m sticking to my call for prices to decline anew to $10 to $20 per barrel...
But the world continues to be awash in crude, and American frackers have replaced the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries as the world’s swing producers.
The once-feared oil cartel is, to my mind, pretty much finished as an effective price enforcer.
Even OPEC’s leader, Saudi Arabia, is acknowledging the new reality by quashing recent attempts to freeze output, borrowing from banks and preparing to sell a stake in its Aramco oil company as it tries to find new sources of non-oil revenue...
The price at which major producers chicken out and slash production isn’t determined by the prices needed to balance the budgets of oil producing nations, which are as high as $208 per barrel in Libya and as low as $52 per barrel in Kuwait. Nor is it the "full cycle" or average cost of production that includes drilling costs, overheads, pipelines, etc.
In a price war, the chicken-out point is the price that equals the marginal cost of producing oil from an established well.
Once fracking operations are set up and staffed, leases paid for, drilling underway and pipelines laid, the marginal cost of shale oil for efficient producers in the Permian Basin in Texas is about $10 to $20 per barrel and even lower in the Persian Gulf.
Furthermore, fracking costs continue to fall as productivity improves.
The number of drilling rigs operating in the U.S. continues to drop. But the rigs taken offline are mostly old vertical drillers that drill only one hole per platform, while horizontal rigs -- able to drill 20 to 30 wells per platform like the spokes of a wheel -- increasingly dominate. So output per working rig is accelerating....
------
Link: http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-06-28/why-oil-is-still-headed-as-low-as-10-a-barrel
Friday, June 10, 2016
Is Kevin Love the "new" David Lee?
Just asking. Warriors at Cavs; game 4, NBA Finals. PB
------
From ESPN.com:
...At first glance, that has almost nothing to do with Love. LeBron lets Barnes go, Irving is slow to switch onto him and Barnes obliterates Irving on the block as if he isn't there.
But that breakdown is actually all about Love, even though Love did nothing horribly wrong. Check out Love in the right corner at the start of the play: He's stuck on Klay Thompson. That is the hangover effect of a Golden State defensive switch on the other end that left Thompson guarding Love.
The Warriors love to do that: screw up the matchups, get a stop and make your head spin in transition as you try to snap back into your preferred assignments.
LeBron reads Love on Thompson as a crisis, makes a unilateral decision to switch onto Thompson and expects Love to reciprocate by sliding onto Barnes. Love doesn't reciprocate, and there is nothing worse in this life than unrequited Love. Barnes springs open and finally bullies Irving.
One bit of fretting -- Oh god, Kevin is on Klay! -- triggered a chain of events that tore apart Cleveland's defense in about two seconds. Love's specific limitations compound the anxiety.
He's slow-footed and he has never shaken the maddening habit of admiring his own jumpers while his man leaks out ahead of him. That crap is fatal against the Warriors....
------
Link: http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/16097908/2016-nba-finals-cleveland-cavaliers-bring-kevin-love-bench
------
From ESPN.com:
...At first glance, that has almost nothing to do with Love. LeBron lets Barnes go, Irving is slow to switch onto him and Barnes obliterates Irving on the block as if he isn't there.
But that breakdown is actually all about Love, even though Love did nothing horribly wrong. Check out Love in the right corner at the start of the play: He's stuck on Klay Thompson. That is the hangover effect of a Golden State defensive switch on the other end that left Thompson guarding Love.
The Warriors love to do that: screw up the matchups, get a stop and make your head spin in transition as you try to snap back into your preferred assignments.
LeBron reads Love on Thompson as a crisis, makes a unilateral decision to switch onto Thompson and expects Love to reciprocate by sliding onto Barnes. Love doesn't reciprocate, and there is nothing worse in this life than unrequited Love. Barnes springs open and finally bullies Irving.
One bit of fretting -- Oh god, Kevin is on Klay! -- triggered a chain of events that tore apart Cleveland's defense in about two seconds. Love's specific limitations compound the anxiety.
He's slow-footed and he has never shaken the maddening habit of admiring his own jumpers while his man leaks out ahead of him. That crap is fatal against the Warriors....
------
Link: http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/16097908/2016-nba-finals-cleveland-cavaliers-bring-kevin-love-bench
Friday, June 3, 2016
AP: US hiring grinds to a near-halt; many stop looking for work
From the Associated Press online:
U.S. hiring slowed to a near-standstill in May, sowing doubts about the economy's health and complicating the Federal Reserve's efforts to raise interest rates.
While unemployment slid from 5 percent to 4.7 percent, the lowest since November 2007, the rate fell for a troubling reason: Nearly a half-million jobless Americans stopped looking for work and so were no longer counted as unemployed.
Employers added just 38,000 jobs in May, the fewest in over five years.
Less-educated workers bore the brunt of the hiring slump, with a quarter-million high-school dropouts losing their jobs in May.
That has perpetuated a long-term trend toward a two-tiered job market, with college-educated adults more likely to be employed and earning steady raises.
------
Link: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_ECONOMY?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-06-03-15-38-20
U.S. hiring slowed to a near-standstill in May, sowing doubts about the economy's health and complicating the Federal Reserve's efforts to raise interest rates.
While unemployment slid from 5 percent to 4.7 percent, the lowest since November 2007, the rate fell for a troubling reason: Nearly a half-million jobless Americans stopped looking for work and so were no longer counted as unemployed.
Employers added just 38,000 jobs in May, the fewest in over five years.
Less-educated workers bore the brunt of the hiring slump, with a quarter-million high-school dropouts losing their jobs in May.
That has perpetuated a long-term trend toward a two-tiered job market, with college-educated adults more likely to be employed and earning steady raises.
------
Link: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_ECONOMY?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-06-03-15-38-20
U2 - U3 - U6 ... What are U looking for?
U2 sings: I still haven't found what I'm looking for...
U3 says: Official Unemployment Rate is 4.7%
U6 says: Real Unemployment Rate is 9.7% How can this be? Why is the Real Number more than twice as much as the Official Number?
From the Wall Street Journal Online:
The standard measure [U3] of unemployment only includes people who are actively looking for work. Broader measures of unemployment and underemployment have also declined in recent years.
These measures include discouraged and marginally attached workers who would like to work but have given up searching for employment.
The broadest measure [U6] of underemployment was unchanged at 9.7% this month. This measure includes workers who have given up searching and also part-time workers who would prefer to work full time.
------
Link: http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/06/03/the-may-jobs-report-in-12-charts-2/
------
See the numbers yourself: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm
U3 says: Official Unemployment Rate is 4.7%
U6 says: Real Unemployment Rate is 9.7% How can this be? Why is the Real Number more than twice as much as the Official Number?
From the Wall Street Journal Online:
The standard measure [U3] of unemployment only includes people who are actively looking for work. Broader measures of unemployment and underemployment have also declined in recent years.
These measures include discouraged and marginally attached workers who would like to work but have given up searching for employment.
The broadest measure [U6] of underemployment was unchanged at 9.7% this month. This measure includes workers who have given up searching and also part-time workers who would prefer to work full time.
------
Link: http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/06/03/the-may-jobs-report-in-12-charts-2/
------
See the numbers yourself: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm
Wednesday, June 1, 2016
DO YOU WANT FRIES WITH YOUR JOB?
From VisualCapitalist.com:
Link: http://www.visualcapitalist.com/do-you-want-fries-with-that-jobs-chart/
Thursday, May 19, 2016
Many job prospects simply walk rather than take the drug test
Three jobs ago it was a cup. Two jobs ago I had to take a TB test. The most recent job required a swab from the cheek inside the mouth. It reminded me of going to the dentist.
Thirty years ago and a few times since I have put ink on my finger tips and given prints. I've had my photo taken, background examined, and finances reviewed.
I've submitted to these various checks.
But I wonder, is there something I said on the playground in the fifth grade lurking somewhere? And what happens if I tell someone I still pray? PB
------
From the New York Times online:
[Savannah, GA] A few years back, the heavy-equipment manufacturer JCB held a job fair in the glass foyer of its sprawling headquarters near here, but when a throng of prospective employees learned the next step would be drug testing, an alarming thing happened: About half of them left.
That story still circulates within the business community of this historic port city. But the problem has gotten worse...
Data on the scope of the problem is sketchy because figures on job applicants who test positive for drugs miss the many people who simply skip tests they cannot pass.
...Quest Diagnostics, which has compiled employer-testing data since 1988, documented an increase for a second consecutive year in the percentage of American workers who tested positive for illicit drugs — to 4.7 percent in 2014 from 4.3 percent in 2013. And 2013 was the first year in a decade to show an increase...
------
Link: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/18/business/hiring-hurdle-finding-workers-who-can-pass-a-drug-test.html
Thirty years ago and a few times since I have put ink on my finger tips and given prints. I've had my photo taken, background examined, and finances reviewed.
I've submitted to these various checks.
But I wonder, is there something I said on the playground in the fifth grade lurking somewhere? And what happens if I tell someone I still pray? PB
------
From the New York Times online:
[Savannah, GA] A few years back, the heavy-equipment manufacturer JCB held a job fair in the glass foyer of its sprawling headquarters near here, but when a throng of prospective employees learned the next step would be drug testing, an alarming thing happened: About half of them left.
That story still circulates within the business community of this historic port city. But the problem has gotten worse...
Data on the scope of the problem is sketchy because figures on job applicants who test positive for drugs miss the many people who simply skip tests they cannot pass.
...Quest Diagnostics, which has compiled employer-testing data since 1988, documented an increase for a second consecutive year in the percentage of American workers who tested positive for illicit drugs — to 4.7 percent in 2014 from 4.3 percent in 2013. And 2013 was the first year in a decade to show an increase...
------
Link: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/18/business/hiring-hurdle-finding-workers-who-can-pass-a-drug-test.html
Wednesday, May 11, 2016
WSJ: Recession’s Economic Trauma Has Left Enduring Scars
According to President Obama, it's just luck. You got connections or you don't. It's the system.
The President recently said, “That’s a pet peeve of mine, people who’ve been successful and don’t realize they’ve been lucky, that God may have blessed them. It wasn’t nothing you did, so don’t have an attitude.”
Oh. So, how's that working out in your economy? PB
------
From the Wall Street Journal online:
The recession ended seven years ago, but persistent joblessness and underemployment marred the economic expansion that followed.
A growing body of research suggests the economic trauma has left financial and psychic scars on many Americans, and that those marks are likely to endure for decades.
About one in six U.S. workers became unemployed during the recession years of 2007, 2008 and 2009.
Today, nearly 14 million people are still searching for a job or stuck in part-time jobs because they can’t find full-time work.
Even for the millions of Americans back at work, the effects of losing a job will linger, the research suggests.
They will earn less for years to come...
As in previous recessions, millions of Americans faced a phenomenon economists sometimes call wage scarring.
People who lose a job, even during economic expansions, usually earn less money when they re-enter the workplace.
They are out of work for a time and often take a pay cut as the price of returning to work at a new employer or even in a new career.
This time, the damage was exacerbated by the job market’s painfully slow recovery.
Extended or repeated spells of unemployment mean more severe earnings losses, and recent years have seen an unusually large number of job seekers out of work for more than six months or stuck in part-time positions.
“They had a much harder time finding a job, and in particular a full-time job, which immediately turns into an earnings decline...”
Job loss has more than just financial consequences.
Unemployment often is an isolating experience.
A layoff can strip people of their identity as workers in a chosen field and their workplace-based social network of co-workers and other contacts.
Researchers have linked job loss to stress, depression and feelings of distrust, anxiety and shame...
------
Link http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-recessions-economic-trauma-has-left-enduring-scars-1462809318
The President recently said, “That’s a pet peeve of mine, people who’ve been successful and don’t realize they’ve been lucky, that God may have blessed them. It wasn’t nothing you did, so don’t have an attitude.”
Oh. So, how's that working out in your economy? PB
------
From the Wall Street Journal online:
The recession ended seven years ago, but persistent joblessness and underemployment marred the economic expansion that followed.
A growing body of research suggests the economic trauma has left financial and psychic scars on many Americans, and that those marks are likely to endure for decades.
About one in six U.S. workers became unemployed during the recession years of 2007, 2008 and 2009.
Today, nearly 14 million people are still searching for a job or stuck in part-time jobs because they can’t find full-time work.
Even for the millions of Americans back at work, the effects of losing a job will linger, the research suggests.
They will earn less for years to come...
As in previous recessions, millions of Americans faced a phenomenon economists sometimes call wage scarring.
People who lose a job, even during economic expansions, usually earn less money when they re-enter the workplace.
They are out of work for a time and often take a pay cut as the price of returning to work at a new employer or even in a new career.
This time, the damage was exacerbated by the job market’s painfully slow recovery.
Extended or repeated spells of unemployment mean more severe earnings losses, and recent years have seen an unusually large number of job seekers out of work for more than six months or stuck in part-time positions.
“They had a much harder time finding a job, and in particular a full-time job, which immediately turns into an earnings decline...”
Job loss has more than just financial consequences.
Unemployment often is an isolating experience.
A layoff can strip people of their identity as workers in a chosen field and their workplace-based social network of co-workers and other contacts.
Researchers have linked job loss to stress, depression and feelings of distrust, anxiety and shame...
------
Link http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-recessions-economic-trauma-has-left-enduring-scars-1462809318
Saturday, May 7, 2016
Really? Why the continuing unhappiness? The Job Market's Missing Middle
From Bloomberg.com:
Why are so many people unhappy about a U.S. economy that has generated more than 12 million jobs over the past five years?
One explanation: A lot of those jobs don’t pay very well...
Why the disconnect? One possibility is that the mix of jobs being created has been skewed toward low-paying types of work.
This could hold average wage growth down even amid strong overall employment gains and decent raises in individual sectors.
To get a sense of whether this has been happening, I split the total number of private-sector jobs into three wage groups -- high, medium and low, currently paying an average of about $16, $24 and $35 an hour, respectively.
I then tracked each group’s cumulative job losses and gains through the recession and recovery. Here’s how that looks:
The result is troubling for the American middle class.
Low-wage jobs have accounted for the largest share of the recovery, exceeding the pre-recession peak by more than 4 million.
Growth was particularly strong in activities such as waiting tables or caring for the infirm and elderly.
High-wage professions such as management consulting and computer-systems design have gained, too, but not as much.
Meanwhile, the center has suffered: As of April, the number of middle-wage jobs was still more than 250,000 short of the pre-recession peak...
The data fit well with the picture of "polarization" in the U.S. labor market described by economists such as David Autor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Various types of manufacturing jobs, for example, were among the biggest losers in the middle group, supporting the idea that globalization and automation have taken the largest toll on middle-skill jobs.
That leaves jobs that require either a lot of education or the kind of high-touch, personal attention that a robot or an overseas call center can’t provide.
So while millions of people have gotten back to work since the economy hit bottom in mid-2009, it’s not surprising that a lot of them aren’t too pleased about it.
------
LINK: http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-05-06/the-job-market-s-missing-middle
Why are so many people unhappy about a U.S. economy that has generated more than 12 million jobs over the past five years?
One explanation: A lot of those jobs don’t pay very well...
Why the disconnect? One possibility is that the mix of jobs being created has been skewed toward low-paying types of work.
This could hold average wage growth down even amid strong overall employment gains and decent raises in individual sectors.
To get a sense of whether this has been happening, I split the total number of private-sector jobs into three wage groups -- high, medium and low, currently paying an average of about $16, $24 and $35 an hour, respectively.
I then tracked each group’s cumulative job losses and gains through the recession and recovery. Here’s how that looks:
The result is troubling for the American middle class.
Low-wage jobs have accounted for the largest share of the recovery, exceeding the pre-recession peak by more than 4 million.
Growth was particularly strong in activities such as waiting tables or caring for the infirm and elderly.
High-wage professions such as management consulting and computer-systems design have gained, too, but not as much.
Meanwhile, the center has suffered: As of April, the number of middle-wage jobs was still more than 250,000 short of the pre-recession peak...
The data fit well with the picture of "polarization" in the U.S. labor market described by economists such as David Autor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Various types of manufacturing jobs, for example, were among the biggest losers in the middle group, supporting the idea that globalization and automation have taken the largest toll on middle-skill jobs.
That leaves jobs that require either a lot of education or the kind of high-touch, personal attention that a robot or an overseas call center can’t provide.
So while millions of people have gotten back to work since the economy hit bottom in mid-2009, it’s not surprising that a lot of them aren’t too pleased about it.
------
LINK: http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-05-06/the-job-market-s-missing-middle
Monday, April 11, 2016
Rural White Women in Their 40s Die Sooner
Statistics show how low incomes, geography and behavior affect how long one lives. Poor, rural white women are dying at alarming rates. PB
-------
From the Washington Post online:
White women have been dying prematurely at higher rates since the turn of this century, passing away in their 30s, 40s and 50s in a slow-motion crisis driven by decaying health in small-town America, according to an analysis of national health and mortality statistics by The Washington Post.
Among African Americans, Hispanics and even the oldest white Americans, death rates have continued to fall.
But for white women in what should be the prime of their lives, death rates have spiked upward. In one of the hardest-hit groups — rural white women in their late 40s — the death rate has risen by 30 percent.
The Post’s analysis, which builds on academic research published last year, shows a clear divide in the health of urban and rural Americans, with the gap widening most dramatically among whites.
The statistics reveal two Americas diverging, neither as healthy as it should be but one much sicker than the other.
In modern times, rising death rates are extremely rare and typically involve countries in upheaval, such as Russia immediately after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
In affluent countries, people generally enjoy increasingly long lives, thanks to better cancer treatments; drugs that lower cholesterol and the risk of heart attacks; fewer fatal car accidents; and less violent crime.
But progress for middle-aged white Americans is lagging in many places — and has stopped entirely in smaller cities and towns and the vast open reaches of the country.
The things that reduce the risk of death are now being overwhelmed by things that elevate it, including opioid abuse, heavy drinking, smoking and other self-destructive behaviors...
------
Link: http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/national/2016/04/10/a-new-divide-in-american-death/?hpid=hp_rhp-top-table-main_whitedeath-underdisplay%3Ahomepage%2Fstory
------------------------------
Where living poor means dying young
According to a large study published today about how income and geography shape life expectancies, a poor person living in the San Francisco area can expect to live about three years longer than someone making the same income in Detroit.
That difference is equivalent to how much national life expectancies would rise if we eliminated cancer.
"If you think about the cancer comparison, having cancer is not just about having a shorter life. It's also about having an unhealthier life, a much lower quality of life," says Stanford economist Raj Chetty, the lead author of the study, published in the Journal of the American Medical Association. Seven economists, from MIT, Harvard, the U.S. Treasury and McKinsey and Co., were co-authors.
Think about their new data as if the poor in Detroit get cancer and the poor in San Francisco don't. "Then," Chetty says, "you can see that this is a big deal."
The research, based on the tax and Social Security records of everyone in America between 1999 and 2014 with a valid Social Security number and earnings, gives the most precise look yet at a pattern that has long troubled health experts: In America, the richer you are, the longer you live.
But what's especially striking is that the poor live even shorter lives in some places than others. They have longer life expectancies in affluent cities with highly educated populations, such as San Francisco, New York and Los Angeles.
Among the 100 largest commuting zones ranked by the researchers, six of the top eight for low-income life expectancies are in California, a state with a strong safety net and a history of regulating where you light your cigarette or what comes from your car's tailpipe.
The poor live shorter lives in Las Vegas, Louisville and industrial Midwest towns, such as Gary, Ind.
Geography also matters much more for the poor than the rich. The health behaviors of the wealthy are similar wherever they live.
For the poor, their likelihood of risky behaviors such as smoking depends a great deal on geography, on whether they live in a place where smoking is common or where, as in San Francisco, cigarettes have been shunted out of view...
------
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/04/11/where-living-poor-means-dying-young/
-------
From the Washington Post online:
White women have been dying prematurely at higher rates since the turn of this century, passing away in their 30s, 40s and 50s in a slow-motion crisis driven by decaying health in small-town America, according to an analysis of national health and mortality statistics by The Washington Post.
Among African Americans, Hispanics and even the oldest white Americans, death rates have continued to fall.
But for white women in what should be the prime of their lives, death rates have spiked upward. In one of the hardest-hit groups — rural white women in their late 40s — the death rate has risen by 30 percent.
The Post’s analysis, which builds on academic research published last year, shows a clear divide in the health of urban and rural Americans, with the gap widening most dramatically among whites.
The statistics reveal two Americas diverging, neither as healthy as it should be but one much sicker than the other.
In modern times, rising death rates are extremely rare and typically involve countries in upheaval, such as Russia immediately after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
In affluent countries, people generally enjoy increasingly long lives, thanks to better cancer treatments; drugs that lower cholesterol and the risk of heart attacks; fewer fatal car accidents; and less violent crime.
But progress for middle-aged white Americans is lagging in many places — and has stopped entirely in smaller cities and towns and the vast open reaches of the country.
The things that reduce the risk of death are now being overwhelmed by things that elevate it, including opioid abuse, heavy drinking, smoking and other self-destructive behaviors...
------
Link: http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/national/2016/04/10/a-new-divide-in-american-death/?hpid=hp_rhp-top-table-main_whitedeath-underdisplay%3Ahomepage%2Fstory
------------------------------
Where living poor means dying young
According to a large study published today about how income and geography shape life expectancies, a poor person living in the San Francisco area can expect to live about three years longer than someone making the same income in Detroit.
That difference is equivalent to how much national life expectancies would rise if we eliminated cancer.
"If you think about the cancer comparison, having cancer is not just about having a shorter life. It's also about having an unhealthier life, a much lower quality of life," says Stanford economist Raj Chetty, the lead author of the study, published in the Journal of the American Medical Association. Seven economists, from MIT, Harvard, the U.S. Treasury and McKinsey and Co., were co-authors.
Think about their new data as if the poor in Detroit get cancer and the poor in San Francisco don't. "Then," Chetty says, "you can see that this is a big deal."
The research, based on the tax and Social Security records of everyone in America between 1999 and 2014 with a valid Social Security number and earnings, gives the most precise look yet at a pattern that has long troubled health experts: In America, the richer you are, the longer you live.
But what's especially striking is that the poor live even shorter lives in some places than others. They have longer life expectancies in affluent cities with highly educated populations, such as San Francisco, New York and Los Angeles.
Among the 100 largest commuting zones ranked by the researchers, six of the top eight for low-income life expectancies are in California, a state with a strong safety net and a history of regulating where you light your cigarette or what comes from your car's tailpipe.
The poor live shorter lives in Las Vegas, Louisville and industrial Midwest towns, such as Gary, Ind.
Geography also matters much more for the poor than the rich. The health behaviors of the wealthy are similar wherever they live.
For the poor, their likelihood of risky behaviors such as smoking depends a great deal on geography, on whether they live in a place where smoking is common or where, as in San Francisco, cigarettes have been shunted out of view...
------
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/04/11/where-living-poor-means-dying-young/
Friday, April 1, 2016
Ya think? Part-timers might account for labor-force surge
The illusion continues.
More jobs: part time; lower pay; less hours.
Hooray! We're off to see the Wizard! PB
------
From MarketWatch.com:
The number of able-bodied Americans entering the labor force has surged since last fall.
What’s going on?
It’s hard to say for sure, but circumstantial evidence in the latest U.S. jobs report suggests many of these newly employed workers have found part-time work with mediocre pay.
But it doesn’t appear that companies are taking the first person they find and loading them up with work.
Consider so-called involuntary part-time workers. These are people who would prefer a full-time job or more hours if they were available.
Hiring has been particularly strong in the past six months at retail stores and restaurants, where both pay and the number of hours employees work lags behind the national average.
The number of hours the average person works each weak, meanwhile, has fallen several ticks since the beginning of the year.
And wage growth has leveled off after touching a post-recession high several months ago.
Both are signs of a shift in hiring toward lower-paying jobs with fewer hours.
“The good news is that most of them have quickly found jobs,” speculated Steven Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities.
“The bad news is that most of those jobs, as you would expect, have been relatively low paying and many are only offering part-time hours.”
------
Link: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/part-timers-might-account-for-labor-force-surge-2016-04-01
More jobs: part time; lower pay; less hours.
Hooray! We're off to see the Wizard! PB
------
From MarketWatch.com:
The number of able-bodied Americans entering the labor force has surged since last fall.
What’s going on?
It’s hard to say for sure, but circumstantial evidence in the latest U.S. jobs report suggests many of these newly employed workers have found part-time work with mediocre pay.
But it doesn’t appear that companies are taking the first person they find and loading them up with work.
Consider so-called involuntary part-time workers. These are people who would prefer a full-time job or more hours if they were available.
Hiring has been particularly strong in the past six months at retail stores and restaurants, where both pay and the number of hours employees work lags behind the national average.
The number of hours the average person works each weak, meanwhile, has fallen several ticks since the beginning of the year.
And wage growth has leveled off after touching a post-recession high several months ago.
Both are signs of a shift in hiring toward lower-paying jobs with fewer hours.
“The good news is that most of them have quickly found jobs,” speculated Steven Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities.
“The bad news is that most of those jobs, as you would expect, have been relatively low paying and many are only offering part-time hours.”
------
Link: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/part-timers-might-account-for-labor-force-surge-2016-04-01
Sunday, February 14, 2016
NBA Dunk Contest Winner 2016
Klay Thompson, Golden State Warrior, wins the NBA All Star Weekend 3 Point contest.
Zach LaVine, of the Minnesota Timberwolves and winner again of the Dunk Contest, is captured in a very cool photo by New York Times photographers:
Link: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/02/15/sports/basketball/nba-slam-dunk-photos.html?
Zach LaVine, of the Minnesota Timberwolves and winner again of the Dunk Contest, is captured in a very cool photo by New York Times photographers:
Link: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/02/15/sports/basketball/nba-slam-dunk-photos.html?
Sunday, January 31, 2016
It is not another debate. Nor is it a hedge fund. What could it be?
Nor is it a hedge fund taking a position in a company.
Instead, a bigger shark eats a smaller shark in an aquarium in Korea.
When the big one is done it will regurgitate the 'meal.' It will be interesting to see what that looks like. Maybe it's just politics, or business, and we simply have another way of looking at life. PB
Thursday, January 28, 2016
New Stagflation: more evidence of less startups, less job growth - but certainly More Government 16 Years into George W. Obama World
Where is the dynamism?
Same Old, Same Old rumbles down the line,
but new company formation lags far, far behind.
Far from a visible leap ahead, new jobs from startups creep behind.
This is the New Stagflation. Courtesy of George W. Obama.
Little Guys keep getting hurt and left behind. And the Big Guys - including Big Gov, Big Biz, Big Labor, Big Media, Big Tech, Big Deals, Big Parties - make the rounds at the banquet tables. Hmmm....
Where's Gerald Ford when you need him?
Maybe he and Jimmy C have been with us for sixteen years. How does that possibly change with the presidential options before us? P
------
From the Real Time Economics Blog at WSJ.com:
America’s entrepreneurs still hadn’t regained their footing six years after the recession ended, a troubling sign for an economy that once counted on fast-growing startups for employment and ideas.
A new report by the Labor Department shows 232,000 establishment “births” [Start Up companies] in the second quarter of 2015, a slight decline from the prior quarter. Those accounted for 831,000 jobs.
As a share of the overall labor market, the number of jobs attributed to such births has fallen noticeably since before the recession, from about 12.5% of the total to a little more than 11%.
Commerce Department data, which isn’t as current but reaches back to the 1970s, shows the trend stretching back decades...
But the apparent loss of dynamism—the decline of startups—has been a puzzle for economists and a potential roadblock for economic growth.
The creation and destruction of companies and jobs should, at least in theory, make way for new technology and innovation, allow people to better match their skills to openings and boost productivity...
------
Link: http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/01/27/the-missing-startup-recovery/
Same Old, Same Old rumbles down the line,
but new company formation lags far, far behind.
Far from a visible leap ahead, new jobs from startups creep behind.
This is the New Stagflation. Courtesy of George W. Obama.
Little Guys keep getting hurt and left behind. And the Big Guys - including Big Gov, Big Biz, Big Labor, Big Media, Big Tech, Big Deals, Big Parties - make the rounds at the banquet tables. Hmmm....
Where's Gerald Ford when you need him?
Maybe he and Jimmy C have been with us for sixteen years. How does that possibly change with the presidential options before us? P
------
From the Real Time Economics Blog at WSJ.com:
America’s entrepreneurs still hadn’t regained their footing six years after the recession ended, a troubling sign for an economy that once counted on fast-growing startups for employment and ideas.
A new report by the Labor Department shows 232,000 establishment “births” [Start Up companies] in the second quarter of 2015, a slight decline from the prior quarter. Those accounted for 831,000 jobs.
As a share of the overall labor market, the number of jobs attributed to such births has fallen noticeably since before the recession, from about 12.5% of the total to a little more than 11%.
Commerce Department data, which isn’t as current but reaches back to the 1970s, shows the trend stretching back decades...
But the apparent loss of dynamism—the decline of startups—has been a puzzle for economists and a potential roadblock for economic growth.
The creation and destruction of companies and jobs should, at least in theory, make way for new technology and innovation, allow people to better match their skills to openings and boost productivity...
------
Link: http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/01/27/the-missing-startup-recovery/
Thursday, January 21, 2016
Shooting Back Can Save Innocent Lives
Throw me a pistol...so I can arm myself and shoot back at these terrorists.
That's what some teachers said in Pakistan when evil terrorists went on a murderous rampage of hate inside their school building filled with innocent students.
Shooting back? Lives were saved because of that. PB
------
From Reuters.com:
Stuck with 15 of his students on a third floor balcony of a campus building as gunmen came up the stairs, university director Mohammad Shakil urged Pakistani police arriving at the scene to toss him up a gun so he could shoot back.
"We were hiding ... but were unarmed," Shakil told Reuters, speaking after four Islamist militants attacked Bacha Khan University in Pakistan's troubled northwest on Wednesday, killing more than 20 people.
"I was worried about the students, and then one of the militants came after us," Shakil added. "After repeated requests, the police threw me a pistol and I fired some shots at the terrorists."
As more details of Wednesday's assault emerged, attention focused on at least two members of staff who took up arms to resist attackers bent on killing them and their students.
Some hailed them as heroes, as the country digested an attack which bore similarities to the massacre, in late 2014, of 134 pupils at an army-run school in Peshawar, about 30 km (19 miles) from where this week's violence occurred.
Others questioned whether teachers should be armed, as many are, because it goes against the ideals of the profession.
Such a dilemma may have been far from the mind of chemistry professor Hamid Hussain, as he locked himself inside a room with colleagues after gunmen stormed an accommodation block on the university campus.
When the assailants broke down the door, Hussain fired several rounds from his pistol, according to Shabir Ahmad Khan, an English department lecturer taking cover in an adjacent washroom.
"They carried on heavy shooting and I was preparing myself for death, but then they did not enter the washroom and left," Khan recalled.
Later on in the same building, Hussain fired again at the militants to allow some of his students to get away, surviving pupils told local media.
Hussain was subsequently shot and later died from his wounds.
"Kudos to professor Dr Hamid Hussain. Our hero fought bravely n saved many," Asma Shirazi, a popular talk show host, said on Twitter.
Others, too, have credited the actions of Hussain and Shakil with helping to prevent the gunmen, armed with assault rifles and hand grenades, from spilling more blood.
Bacha Khan University also employed around 50 of its own guards who, witnesses said, fought for close to an hour to keep the gunmen isolated and prevent them from entering the girl's hostel as the police and army arrived.
Pakistan army spokesman General Asim Bajwa said the security guards responded "very well" to the attack before reinforcements reached them...
------
Link: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-pakistan-attacks-idUSKCN0UZ232
That's what some teachers said in Pakistan when evil terrorists went on a murderous rampage of hate inside their school building filled with innocent students.
Shooting back? Lives were saved because of that. PB
------
From Reuters.com:
Stuck with 15 of his students on a third floor balcony of a campus building as gunmen came up the stairs, university director Mohammad Shakil urged Pakistani police arriving at the scene to toss him up a gun so he could shoot back.
"We were hiding ... but were unarmed," Shakil told Reuters, speaking after four Islamist militants attacked Bacha Khan University in Pakistan's troubled northwest on Wednesday, killing more than 20 people.
"I was worried about the students, and then one of the militants came after us," Shakil added. "After repeated requests, the police threw me a pistol and I fired some shots at the terrorists."
As more details of Wednesday's assault emerged, attention focused on at least two members of staff who took up arms to resist attackers bent on killing them and their students.
Some hailed them as heroes, as the country digested an attack which bore similarities to the massacre, in late 2014, of 134 pupils at an army-run school in Peshawar, about 30 km (19 miles) from where this week's violence occurred.
Others questioned whether teachers should be armed, as many are, because it goes against the ideals of the profession.
Such a dilemma may have been far from the mind of chemistry professor Hamid Hussain, as he locked himself inside a room with colleagues after gunmen stormed an accommodation block on the university campus.
When the assailants broke down the door, Hussain fired several rounds from his pistol, according to Shabir Ahmad Khan, an English department lecturer taking cover in an adjacent washroom.
"They carried on heavy shooting and I was preparing myself for death, but then they did not enter the washroom and left," Khan recalled.
Later on in the same building, Hussain fired again at the militants to allow some of his students to get away, surviving pupils told local media.
Hussain was subsequently shot and later died from his wounds.
"Kudos to professor Dr Hamid Hussain. Our hero fought bravely n saved many," Asma Shirazi, a popular talk show host, said on Twitter.
Others, too, have credited the actions of Hussain and Shakil with helping to prevent the gunmen, armed with assault rifles and hand grenades, from spilling more blood.
Bacha Khan University also employed around 50 of its own guards who, witnesses said, fought for close to an hour to keep the gunmen isolated and prevent them from entering the girl's hostel as the police and army arrived.
Pakistan army spokesman General Asim Bajwa said the security guards responded "very well" to the attack before reinforcements reached them...
------
Link: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-pakistan-attacks-idUSKCN0UZ232
Friday, January 15, 2016
Code Red: Wall Street Hemorrhages
More to come. More to drop. PB
------
From Reuters.com:
Wall Street bled on Friday, with the S&P 500 sinking to its lowest since October 2014 as oil prices sank below $30 per barrel and fears grew about economic trouble in China.
Pain was dealt widely, with the day's trading volume unusually high and more than a fifth of S&P 500 stocks touching 52-week lows.
The major S&P sectors all ended sharply lower. The Russell 2000 small-cap index dropped as much as 3.5 percent to its lowest since July 2013.
The energy sector dropped 2.87 percent as oil prices fell 6.5 percent, in part due to fears of slow economic growth in China, where major stock indexes also slumped overnight.
The energy sector has lost nearly half its value after hitting record highs in late 2014...
------
Link: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-idUSKCN0UT1DA
------
From Reuters.com:
Wall Street bled on Friday, with the S&P 500 sinking to its lowest since October 2014 as oil prices sank below $30 per barrel and fears grew about economic trouble in China.
Pain was dealt widely, with the day's trading volume unusually high and more than a fifth of S&P 500 stocks touching 52-week lows.
The major S&P sectors all ended sharply lower. The Russell 2000 small-cap index dropped as much as 3.5 percent to its lowest since July 2013.
The energy sector dropped 2.87 percent as oil prices fell 6.5 percent, in part due to fears of slow economic growth in China, where major stock indexes also slumped overnight.
The energy sector has lost nearly half its value after hitting record highs in late 2014...
------
Link: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-idUSKCN0UT1DA
Thursday, January 7, 2016
Global Stocks Plunge: Made in China!
From the Wall Street Journal online:
Steep falls in Chinese equities pummeled global markets on Thursday, as widening concerns over the world’s No. 2 economy pushed investors out of shares, oil and metals.
The selloff came after the People’s Bank of China made its largest downward adjustment to the yuan since August, a move that sent the country’s stock market down over 7% amid concerns about capital flight from the Asian giant...
China’s stock markets stopped trading after only 30 minutes, ending the shortest trading day in their history after a newly installed mechanism to limit volatility was triggered for the second time this week...
------
Link: http://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-fall-on-china-volatility-1452156855
Steep falls in Chinese equities pummeled global markets on Thursday, as widening concerns over the world’s No. 2 economy pushed investors out of shares, oil and metals.
The selloff came after the People’s Bank of China made its largest downward adjustment to the yuan since August, a move that sent the country’s stock market down over 7% amid concerns about capital flight from the Asian giant...
China’s stock markets stopped trading after only 30 minutes, ending the shortest trading day in their history after a newly installed mechanism to limit volatility was triggered for the second time this week...
------
Link: http://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-fall-on-china-volatility-1452156855
Wednesday, January 6, 2016
North Korea said it successfully tested a miniaturized hydrogen nuclear bomb
And Happy New Year to you, too!
Acting crazy, being unpredictable, and claiming great capacity to inflict great harm seems to work for North Korea. The world has dangerous neighborhoods as much as big cities do. PB
------
From Reuters.com:
North Korea says it successfully conducts H-bomb test
North Korea said it successfully tested a miniaturized hydrogen nuclear bomb on Wednesday, claiming a significant advance in its strike capability and setting off alarm bells in Japan and South Korea.
The test, the fourth time the isolated state has exploded a nuclear device, was ordered by young leader Kim Jong Un and successfully conducted at 10:00 a.m. local time (0130 GMT), North Korea's official KCNA news agency said.
"Let the world look up to the strong, self-reliant nuclear-armed state," Kim wrote in what North Korean state TV displayed as a handwritten note.
South Korean intelligence officials and several analysts questioned whether Wednesday's explosion was indeed a full-fledged test of a hydrogen device.
But the reported nuclear test drew condemnation abroad, including from China and Russia, North Korea's two main allies.
China expressed "resolute opposition" and said it would lodge a protest with Pyongyang.
No countries were given advance warning of a nuclear test, South Korea's intelligence service said, according to lawmakers briefed by intelligence officials...
------
Link: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-nuclear-idUSKBN0UK0G420160106
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