Will the real Gene Epstein please stand up!

Gene Epstein is a very good economics writer for Barron's.

I recall that over ten years ago Epstein wrote a few articles about the differences between two government employment surveys: the household and the establishment surveys.  That was first time the distinction between the two was made clear to me.

Epstein also over time would occasionally correct the hostile and political Paul Krugman of the New York Times for his serial distortions.

Those critiques of Krugman always provide enjoyment.

This past weekend Epstein wrote about the most recent employment numbers and gives them a hearty endorsement.

What drew my attention was remembering this past August Epstein wrote the opposite of what he now observes in the employment data.

Below are two excerpts: one from this month, which is highly positive.  The other from last August, which is cautionary.

Maybe six months time has made a real difference.   PB
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Jobs Report Shows Growing Economic Strength

Barron's: February 7, 2015

Another month, another record—and this month, a record that is really robust.

The January employment data, released on Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, signaled momentum for the U.S. economy going into 2015, despite head winds from the global slowdown...

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by a solid 257,000 in January, and private-sector employment, by 267,000.

With huge upward revisions to prior months, the 12-month gain in total payroll employment ran 2.3%, just as it did in December.

The back-to-back 2.3% gains are nearly 15-year records.

The laggard in the data has been increases in average hourly earnings, but even that has perked up, rising by 0.5% in January, the largest monthly advance in more than six years...

Link:http://online.barrons.com/articles/SB51367578116875004693704580437760312354180
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Work's for Squares

Barron's: August 30, 2014

The job market has made a comeback over the past year, but the American labor force hasn't, and the prospects don't look good.

Work seems to be on the wane in the U.S., with worrisome consequences for economic growth.

While the unemployment rate slipped to 6.1% in June -- its lowest level in six years -- the percentage of adult American workers who are actually in the workforce is at its lowest level in 36 years, with no rebound in sight.

No one in government is facing up to the severity of the problem.

In her recent talk at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen posed the question of whether weak labor-force participation is due to cyclical factors that will pass with a stronger expansion or to structural factors likely to endure. She offered no sure answer.

Barron's will answer that question for her.

The problem increasingly appears to be structural.

Following the devastating recession of 2008-09, the "jobless recovery" drove many workers out of the labor force, as often happens when the economy is in a downward cycle and then struggles to recover.

But now that the expansion is starting its sixth year, the rebound in the job market is beginning to make the decline in participation look anomalous and therefore likely to persist...

Link: http://online.barrons.com/articles/SB50001424127887323949604580113811574041250