Wednesday, December 31, 2014

Greenspan Throws a Wet Blanket on Hopes for Growth Breakout

So, the Maestro gives a pronouncement.  

Good pep talk, buddy. 

Nice way to rally the troops on their march to 2016!

Happy New Year!  PB
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From Bloomberg.com:

Just when you thought the U.S. economy was roaring back to health, Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is here to tell you otherwise.

“The U.S. is doing better than anybody else, but we’re still not doing all that well,” Greenspan, 88, said today in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “In the Loop” with Betty Liu.

We still have a very sluggish economy.” 

Greenspan said the economy won’t fully recover until American companies invest more in productive assets and the housing market bounces back.

“Almost all of the weakness in the last four, five, six years has been in long-lived investments” in capital goods and real estate, Greenspan said.

“Until these pick up, we’re not going to get the kind of vibrant growth that everyone is hoping for.” 
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Link: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-30/greenspan-throws-a-wet-blanket-on-hopes-for-u-s-growth-breakout.html

Tuesday, December 30, 2014

UPS, FedEx "dimensional prices" - small U.S. firms may pay more

Imagine all the big boxes packing small items.  Try shipping them. 

They don't weigh much - so that shouldn't cost too much.  Right?

Wrong.  Size that takes up extra space - in addition to weight - is going to be charged more. 

FedEx and UPS has hinted at this in the past year or two.

Big box, small product: can no longer get away with paying less.  PB
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From Reuters via Yahoo.com:

United Parcel Service Inc and FedEx Corp are rolling out new pricing systems to curb online retailers' large package sizes, but industry experts warn many small firms are unprepared and could pay up to 50 percent more for shipping.

Starting Monday, UPS will no longer charge for U.S. ground packages under 3 cubic feet by weight but by their "dimensional weight."

Memphis-based FedEx will roll out the same change on Jan 5.

Instead of simply weighing a box, retailers must multiply its length by its height and width, and then divide that by 166 to reach its dimensional weight.

"We believe this (dimensional weight pricing) will encourage customers to reduce their package sizes," Bill Smith, UPS vice president of marketing, told Reuters.

UPS and FedEx announced the change in May and have worked to help customers adjust.

But some small firms lack the resources to change packaging and may switch to the U.S. Postal Service...

Under the new systems ... a woman's shoulder bag weighing 2 pounds – shipped in a box measuring 19 by 15 by 5 inches - will have a dimensional weight of 9 pounds and cost 45 percent more to ship.

Atlanta-based UPS says retailers are shipping lighter goods, but have not shrunk the size of their packaging materials...
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Link:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/small-u-firms-may-struggle-191349699.html

Sunday, December 28, 2014

WSJ: Oil Jobs Squeezed as Prices Plummet

Markets wax and wane; jobs inflate and go away.

2 Buck Chuck now works a second job at the corner gas station.

Oh, have you noticed that gas prices have plummeted? 

The biggest reason for that is Saudi Arabia decided to open the spigots and flood oil into the world market.

Why did they do that?  To punish bad Iran and bad boy Putin in Russia - and send a message everywhere else including the American heartland.

But, as oil prices plummet, so will the jobs in the oil industry.

As those jobs decline, will the media continue to celebrate this underachieving economy that punishes the middle class job seeker?

You decide!  See the comment below: "People will quit making $150,000 a year for $25,000-a-year skills."  PB
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From the Wall Street Journal online:

U.S. oil and gas companies have been an engine of growth through much of an otherwise lackluster economic expansion, providing steady employment, solid wages and fierce competition for workers across wide swaths of the country.

Now, after a roughly 50% plunge in oil prices, exploration and production companies are cutting capital budgets, service companies are weighing layoffs and non-energy firms that popped up to support the industry are bracing for a protracted slowdown.

One company caught in the industry downturn is Hercules Offshore Inc.

The Houston-based firm is laying off 324 employees, roughly 15% of its workforce, because oil companies aren’t renewing contracts for its offshore drilling rigs in the Gulf of Mexico while crude prices are depressed.

It’s been breathtaking,” said Jim Noe, executive vice president of Hercules, which was founded in 2004.

“We’ve never seen this glut of supply and dislocation in oil markets. So we’re not surprised to see a significant decline in demand for our services.”

...Some service companies are trying to find a silver lining in what could be a slowdown in activity and softening of the labor market.

Indeed, companies in the oil and gas industry for years have lamented the difficulty of finding skilled workers, rising wages and short tenure of many employees who are quick to hop between firms.

“In my opinion, in a way it’s good because it will get the companies more efficient,” said Tyler Goodman, president of Borsheim Crane Service, of Williston, N.D.

Having to do everything yesterday costs a lot of money. People will quit making $150,000 a year for $25,000-a-year skills.”
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Link: http://www.wsj.com/articles/job-engine-running-low-on-gas-as-energy-costs-tumble-1419619419

Saturday, December 27, 2014

Party Of The Rich? Democrats!

From Investors.com:

For decades, the Democrats have been getting away with portraying Republicans as hateful men who do the bidding of the wealthy at the expense of the country's poor and middle class.

Yet as the Associated Press reported just before Christmas, "it's actually the liberal-minded who shelled out the most cash in the just completed midterm elections."

What's more, "the two biggest super PACs of 2014," the "Senate Majority PAC and House Majority PAC," were both backed by Democrats.

The AP, using data from the Center for Responsive Politics, continues:

• "Among the 183 groups that wrote checks of $100,000 or more to another group, Democrats had a 3-to-1 cash advantage."

• "Overall, for the campaign season that just ended, donors who gave more than $1 million sent roughly 60 cents of every dollar to liberal groups."

• "Among the 10 biggest donors, Democrats outspent Republicans by an almost 3-to-1 margin."

• "Among groups that funneled more than $100,000 to allies, the top of the list tilted overwhelmingly toward Democrats — a group favoring the GOP doesn't appear on the list until No. 14."

A little more than two years ago, the AP published a similar story, only this time it reported that "in Congress, the wealthiest among us are more likely to be represented by a Democrat than a Republican."

"Of the 10 richest House districts," said the AP, "only two have Republican congressmen. Democrats claim the top six."

We reported ourselves in April that "according to OpenSecrets.org, from 1989 to 2014 rich donors gave Democrats $1.15 billion — $416 million more than the $736 million given to the GOP."

We also noted that "among the top 10 donors to both parties, Democrat supporters outspent Republican supporters 2-to-1."
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Link: http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/122614-732240-party-of-the-rich-is-democrats-not-gop-republicans.htm

Sunday, December 21, 2014

The Liberal Retreat

From Walter Russell Mead writing at the American Interest:

The Obama administration may represent “Peak Left” in American politics.

... as the United States staggers toward the seventh year of Barack Obama’s tenure in the White House, a growing disquiet permeates the ranks of the American left.

After six years of the most liberal President since Jimmy Carter, the nation doesn’t seem to be asking for a second helping.

Even though the multiyear roll-out of Obamacare was carefully crafted to put all the popular features up front, delaying less popular changes into the far future, the program remains unpopular.

Trust in the fairness and competence of government is pushing toward new lows in the polls, even though the government is now in the hands of forward-looking, progressive Democrats...

Here we are, six years into the Age of Obama, and the Tea Party is alive and Occupy is dead.

The Republicans swept the midterm elections both nationally and at the state level—and Hillary Clinton appears more interested in conciliating Wall Street than in fighting it, and more interested in building bridges to conservative foreign policy thinkers than in continuing the Obama foreign policy.

(And with even Jimmy Carter lambasting Obama’s Middle East policy as too weak, and the President committing to new troop deployments in Iraq and Afghanistan, it’s not clear that even President Obama wants to stay the course.)

The liberal rout at the level of state and local politics is even more alarming.

A wave of Republican Governors in blue Midwestern states (Walker in Wisconsin, Snyder in Michigan, plus the Dem-crushing Kasich in purple Ohio) and large GOP gains in state legislatures across the country point to a widespread reaction against liberal ideas, and lend credence to the idea that, even accounting for the GOP-skewed electorate in off-year elections, the country as a whole is drifting to the right...

But to blame Obama for the crisis of the liberal left is unpersuasive.  

It was the liberal left who fell hardest for him, who praised him to the skies and who stuck with him longer than anybody else...

In that sense the Obama administration may represent “Peak Left” in American politics, and what we are getting from the left these days is a mix of bewilderment and anger as it realizes that this is as good as it gets.

America is unlikely to go farther to the left than it went in the wake of the Iraq War and the financial crash, and while that wasn’t anywhere near enough of a shift for left-leaning Democrats, the country has already moved on.
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Link: http://www.the-american-interest.com/2014/12/19/next-up-in-america-the-liberal-retreat/

Gallon of Gas Under $2

From DetroitGasPrices.com




Saturday, December 20, 2014

Texas job growth outgains rest of U.S. combined

From George Strait:

"All my ex's live in Texas
and Texas is the place I'd dearly love to be..."
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From the State of Texas (courtesy of the Washington Examiner:)

The economic miracle in Texas continues.

Since the recession began in December 2007, 1.2 million net jobs have been created in Texas.

Only 700,000 net jobs have been created in the other 49 states combined.

The remarkable employment growth in Texas looks even bigger considering its size relative to the rest of the U.S.

Total non-farm employment has grown by 11.5 percent in Texas since December 2007.

Employment in the rest of the United States has grown only 0.6 percent. Until September 2014, total employment growth in the rest of the United States since December 2007 was still negative.

Only North Dakota has outpaced Texas on percent job growth, thanks to jobs created by the fracking revolution.

California, Texas’ biggest economic rival, has created 985,600 fewer net jobs during the same period. California’s 1.5 percent job growth is ten percentage points lower than Texas’ percent job growth...

Why is Texas such a great state for job creation?

For starters, Texas does not collect an individual income tax or a corporate income tax. It does collect a gross receipts tax.

Still, the Tax Foundation’s 2015 State Business Tax Climate Index says Texas has the tenth best business tax climate in the U.S.

Texas has one of the highest sales taxes in the nation to make up for lost income tax revenue. The combined state and average local sales tax rate of 8.15 percent is 11th highest in the nation.

However, sales taxes are more efficient than income taxes, since they don’t punish work...
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Link: http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/texas-job-growth-outpaces-rest-of-u.s.-combined/article/2557660

Tuesday, December 16, 2014

The devalued American worker

More on the difficulty for millions of Americans who want to stay in the middle class.

This story from the Washington Post focuses on a man named Ed Green.

Ed is worth knowing.

At the end of the excerpt is a link to read about Ed Green.  PB
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From the Washington Post online:

Today, a shrinking share of Americans are working middle-class jobs, and collectively, they earn less of the nation’s income than they used to...

For that, you can blame the past three recessions, which sparked a chain reaction of layoffs and lower pay.

Millions of American jobs disappeared during the 1990, 2001 and 2008 recessions.

That’s what happens in recessions.

But for decades after World War II, lost jobs came back when the economy picked up again. These times, they didn’t.

And it was a particular sort of job that disappeared permanently in those downturns:

Economists call those jobs “middle-skill” jobs.

They include a lot of factory work — the country is down about 5.5 million manufacturing jobs since 1990, according to the Labor Department — but also a lot of clerical and sales tasks that can be handled easily from a country where workers make a fraction of what they make here...
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Link: http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/business/2014/12/14/the-devalued-american-worker/

Coming to Pump Near You: $2 Gas

From Money.CNN.com:

 After a weekend of price cutting at stations, gas for less than $2 can be found in 13 states across the country.

Two weeks ago there was only one gas station in the country selling gas that cheap...

Cheap gas is most frequently found at stations in Oklahoma, which was the first state to break the $2 a gallon mark on Dec. 3.

Another ten states -- Alabama, Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, New Mexico, Texas and Virginia -- also have gas for less than $2...
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Link: http://money.cnn.com/2014/12/15/news/economy/2-dollar-gas/index
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http://www.gasbuddy.com/          www.DetroitGasPrices.com:


Sunday, December 14, 2014

If ObamaCare is so good...

The 6 year liberal experiment is a failure.

The middle class is losing ground.  Yet, government is growing bigger and bigger and taking up more and more space in our lives.

Here's a question: why don't liberals embrace and apply liberal solutions to their families and wallets?

Liberals: start enrolling in Obamacare.

Every government employee and union member: give up your Cadillac health plans and join Obamacare.

Why haven't you done so already?  What are you: a bunch of bigots?    PB
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From the New York Post online:

Imagine how long ObamaCare would last if the folks who wrote and approved the law were forced to live by its rules.

Sen. David Vitter has been waging this crusade for more than a year now.

He wants to require the House and Senate and all their staff to buy their health insurance from the same government exchanges they have inflicted on millions of Americans.

For a long while, it seemed the Louisiana Republican was the only one on Capitol Hill who understood this simple notion:  

If ObamaCare is so good, why don’t the people who wrote the law want it themselves?

This week Vitter’s lonely campaign finally saw some significant daylight: The Senate GOP conference passed his resolution. Now the conference is challenging the Democrats to do likewise.

Not surprisingly, Vitter’s push has never been popular on Capitol Hill, even in his own party.

Many Hill Republicans wonder why they should have to live under a law they fought against — and that could inflict significant hardship on some staff families.

Some fear mass resignations.

But Vitter’s answer is clear: “Washington should have to live under ObamaCare just like everybody else, until we repeal it.”

In short, Sen. Vitter and the Senate Republicans are putting pressure on Democrats to live by what they claim is a great deal for every other citizen.

At the same time, by this resolution they are saying to the citizens of this nation: “We’ll share your pain until we fix this thing.”

We can’t think of a better message to send — or a better example to set — as Republicans prepare to take control of both the House and Senate.
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Link: http://nypost.com/2014/12/11/feeling-our-obamacare-pain/

The American middle class is in trouble

From the Washington Post online:

Make no mistake: The American middle class is in trouble.

That trouble started decades ago, well before the 2008 financial crisis, and it is rooted in shifts far more complicated than the simple tax-and-spend debates that dominate economic policy making in Washington.

It used to be that when the U.S. economy grew, workers up and down the economic ladder saw their incomes increase, too.

But over the past 25 years, the economy has grown 83 percent, after adjusting for inflation — and the typical family’s income hasn’t budged.

In that time, corporate profits doubled as a share of the economy.

Workers today produce nearly twice as many goods and services per hour on the job as they did in 1989, but as a group, they get less of the nation’s economic pie.

In 81 percent of America’s counties, the median income is lower today than it was 15 years ago.

In this new reality, a smaller share of Americans enjoy the fruits of an expanding economy.

This isn’t a fluke of the past few years — it’s woven into the very structure of the economy.

And even though Republicans and Democrats keep promising to help the middle class reclaim the prosperity it grew accustomed to after World War II, their prescriptions aren’t working...
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Link: http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/business/2014/12/12/why-americas-middle-class-is-lost/

The Vanishing Male Worker

From the New York Times online:

Working, in America, is in decline.

The share of prime-age men — those 25 to 54 years old — who are not working has more than tripled since the late 1960s, to 16 percent.

More recently, since the turn of the century, the share of women without paying jobs has been rising, too.

The United States, which had one of the highest employment rates among developed nations as recently as 2000, has fallen toward the bottom of the list...

Many men, in particular, have decided that low-wage work will not improve their lives, in part because deep changes in American society have made it easier for them to live without working.

These changes include the availability of federal disability benefits; the decline of marriage, which means fewer men provide for children; and the rise of the Internet, which has reduced the isolation of unemployment.

At the same time, it has become harder for men to find higher-paying jobs...

The resulting absence of millions of potential workers has serious consequences not just for the men and their families but for the nation as a whole.

A smaller work force is likely to lead to a slower-growing economy, and will leave a smaller share of the population to cover the cost of government, even as a larger share seeks help...
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Link: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/12/upshot/unemployment-the-vanishing-male-worker-how-america-fell-behind.html

Wednesday, December 10, 2014

With $2 Gas, the Toyota Prius Is for Drivers Who Stink at Math

An early Christmas gift of insight for the purposeful consumer who follows the Environmental Fashions...
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From Businessweek.com:

All this is a major problem for anyone trying to sell hybrid and electric vehicles.

Electric engines and their massive batteries have never been cheap.

A big part of the sales equation—savings at the fuel pump—has virtually vanished...

It would take almost 30 years of fuel savings from the hybrid Prius to cover its price premium over the little Chevy Cruze, although that doesn't account for the Chevy buyer making savvy investments with her savings in the meantime.

It doesn't matter, since we will all be flying around in futuristic Teslas before the Prius pays off...

The Cruze gets a respectable 30 miles per gallon of combined highway and city driving, but its real strength is relative affordability.

Without a second engine and a massive battery, the average Cruze had a $21,322 sticker price last month, compared with almost $31,973 for a Prius and $32,933 for a Leaf.

Even after federal tax breaks, Cruze buyers start with an advantage of $8,151 over the Prius and $4,111 over the Leaf.

That’s a lot of gas money...
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Link: http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-12-10/with-2-gas-the-toyota-prius-is-for-drivers-who-stink-at-math#r=rss

Sunday, December 7, 2014

NBC: Jobs Report Wasn't So Great After All

When consuming economic news, it is important to look beneath the surface to see more fully what is happening.

Jobs growth at 321,000 new jobs!  Really? What kind of jobs?

Skepticism is not cynicism.  Consider who is saying what about jobs.  See the line: "Analysts, though, mostly gushed at the report."   PB
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From CNBC.com:

Consider it a brutal lesson in government math.

Friday's turbocharged jobs headline came thanks to seasonal adjustments and other wizardry at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which reported that U.S. job growth hit 321,000 even as the unemployment rate held steady at 5.8 percent.

Those numbers, courtesy of establishment survey estimates, sound nice on the surface...

However, the household survey, which is an actual head count, presents details that show there's still plenty of work to do.

A few figures to consider: That big headline number translated into just 4,000 more working Americans.

There were, at the same time, another 115,000 on the unemployment line...

The jobs that were created skewed heavily toward lower quality.

Full-time jobs declined by 150,000, while part-time positions increased by 77,000....

Analysts, though, mostly gushed over the report...

But there were several other points not to like in the report.

Families, for instance, also were under pressure:

There were 110,000 fewer married men at work, while married women saw their ranks shrink by 59,000...

Finally, there was a rather startling numerical coincidence: That same 321,000 figure was repeated later in the report—as the total number of bar and restaurant jobs created over the past 12 months.
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Link: www.cnbc.com/id/102243878

Friday, December 5, 2014

Bill Gross: take some chips off the table

Bill Gross, now at Janus funds, writes an investment outlook.

To your left, in the Links column, find Bill Gross' commentary.  The link title is from his days at PIMCO.  PB
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From the Monthly Investment Outlook from Bill Gross:

....Markets are reaching the point of low return and diminishing liquidity.

Investors may want to begin to take some chips off the table: raise asset quality, reduce duration, and prepare for at least a halt of asset appreciation engineered upon a false central bank premise of artificial yields, QE and the trickling down of faux wealth to the working class.

If the nursery rhyme theme is apropos to the future, as well as the past, investors should remember that while “Jack and Jill went up the hill,” that “Jack fell down, broke his crown, and Jill came tumbling after.”

Someday soon, perhaps.

-William H. Gross
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Link: https://www.janus.com/bill-gross-investment-outlook

It’s official: America is now No. 2

Slipping and sliding. 

Go Team Go! 

We're Number 2!  PB
----

From MarketWatch.com:

The International Monetary Fund recently released the latest numbers for the world economy.

And when you measure national economic output in “real” terms of goods and services, China will this year produce $17.6 trillion — compared with $17.4 trillion for the U.S.A.

As recently as 2000, we produced nearly three times as much as the Chinese.

To put the numbers slightly differently, China now accounts for 16.5% of the global economy when measured in real purchasing-power terms, compared with 16.3% for the U.S...
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Link: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-official-america-is-now-no-2-2014-12-04?

Tuesday, December 2, 2014

WSJ: Basic Costs Squeeze Families

From the Wall Street Journal online:

The American middle class has absorbed a steep increase in the cost of health care and other necessities as incomes have stagnated over the past half decade, a squeeze that has forced families to cut back spending on everything from clothing to restaurants.

Health-care spending by middle-income Americans rose 24% between 2007 and 2013, driven by an even larger rise in the cost of buying health insurance, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of detailed consumer-spending data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

That hit has been accompanied by increases in spending on other necessities, including food eaten at home, rent and education, as well as the soaring cost of staying connected digitally via cellphones and home Internet service...

(T)he Journal analyzed Labor Department data on 2013 out-of-pocket spending for the middle 60% of the population by income—households earning between about $18,000 and $95,000 a year, before taxes.

The data show they are losing ground.

Overall spending for the group rose by about 2.3% over the six-year period from 2007, even as inflation totaled about 12%. At the same time, income for the group stagnated, rising less than half a percent...

“Part of the story is that your income growth is slowing,” said Steven Fazzari, an economist and chairman of the sociology department at Washington University in St. Louis.

“They’re spending more on necessities, cutting back on other types.”
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Link: http://online.wsj.com/articles/americans-reallocate-their-dollars-1417476499