Friday, July 31, 2015

Low Interest Rates Could Harm Us

Bill Gross speaking on Fox Business:

Bond king Bill Gross warns that low interest rates could have a negative impact on the U.S. economy.

“There is potential harm to a capitalistic economy because when interest rates are that low, it introduces distortions into financial markets,” Gross said.

“It elevates stock prices, it elevates bond prices and lowers interest rates.”

Gross told FOX Business Network’s Trish Regan that the Fed needs to act soon on rates.

“Capitalism depends on investment,” he said.

“Productivity depends upon that investment in the extent that markets are distorted, then the investment in the real economy, which is the most important and critical factor, becomes distorted and at risk. Ultimately, I think the Fed gradually has to raise interest rates to give, if only, savers a break.”

He added, “I think [the Fed] is still stuck in the old method that suggests that the lower the interest rate the better. When Bernanke went through one percent or through two percent down to the zero level and introduced QE that the distortions began.”

“Ultimately, I think the Fed does have to try to normalize interest rates and bring them back to pre-Lehman types of levels… probably lower, but certainly not zero percent.”
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Link: http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/4387501065001/bill-gross-there-may-be-bubbles-around-us-dollar-/?intcmp=related#sp=show-clips

Thursday, July 30, 2015

Obama Economy Worst Expansion Since WWII - even Weaker than George W. Bush Presidency

From the Wall Street Journal online:

The economic expansion—already the worst on record since World War II—is weaker than previously thought, according to newly revised data.

From 2012 through 2014, the economy grew at an all-too-familiar rate of 2% annually, according to three years of revised figures the Commerce Department released Thursday. That’s a 0.3 percentage point downgrade from prior estimates.

The revisions were released concurrently with the government’s first estimate of second-quarter output.

Since the recession ended in June 2009, the economy has advanced at a 2.2% annual pace through the end of last year.

That’s more than a half-percentage point worse than the next-weakest expansion of the past 70 years, the one from 2001 through 2007.

While there have been highs and lows in individual quarters, overall the economy has failed to break out of its roughly 2% pattern for six years...
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Link: http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/07/30/the-worst-expansion-since-world-war-ii-was-even-weaker/?

Wednesday, July 29, 2015

Pending Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Unexpectedly Declines; Housing Still Constructive!

From Bloomberg online:

Fewer Americans signed contracts in June to buy previously owned homes, representing a pause in the housing market’s momentum.

The index of pending home sales unexpectedly fell 1.8 percent, the first drop this year, after a revised 0.6 percent increase in May that was smaller than initially reported, figures from the National Association of Realtors showed Wednesday in Washington. The median forecast of 37 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 0.9 percent gain.

The data are consistent with the slow improvement in housing, restrained by still-tight lending standards and a limited selection of available properties.

An easing of those conditions, along with an acceleration in wage growth, would allow more Americans to take advantage of cheap borrowing costs and provide more of a tailwind for real estate.

There’s still ongoing demand for housing,” said Ryan Wang, an economist at HSBC Securities USA Inc. in New York, who projected a drop in contract signings. The report “just tells us that sales have been roughly unchanged for the last couple of months, but the trend is still broadly positive...”
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Link: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-29/pending-sales-of-u-s-existing-homes-unexpectedly-fell-in-june

Tuesday, July 28, 2015

Americans start to feel price hikes

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From the Associated Press online:

Apartment rents are up. So are prices for restaurant meals, haircuts, gym memberships and a cup of coffee.

For American consumers who have become used to flat or even falling prices for several years, an unfamiliar sight has emerged in many corners of the economy: Inflation is ticking up.

The price increases remain modest. And in many cases, they're canceled out by price declines for other items that are keeping overall inflation historically low.

Yet the stepped-up price tags for a range of consumer items are the largest since the Great Recession ended six years ago.

They actually reflect a healthier economy: Many businesses have finally grown confident enough to pass their own higher costs on to consumers without fear of losing customers.

  • In June, the price of haircuts jumped 1.6 percent, the biggest monthly jump in the 62 years that the government has tracked the data...
  • Coffee prices jumped 6.1 percent in January from 12 months earlier, the most in nearly three years...
     
  • And beef prices have soared nearly 11 percent in the past year...

  • The biggest driver of inflation this year has been residential rents. They climbed 3.5 percent in June from a year earlier, the fifth straight month with an annual gain of that size...
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Link: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_CONSUMER_PRICES_TICK_UP?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2015-07-28-20-07-23

Sunday, July 26, 2015

The Economist: A global movement toward much higher minimum wages is dangerous

From the Economist.com:

WHEN prices rise, demand falls.

Exceptions to the most basic rule of markets are curiosities—the kind of thing an economist might bore you with at a dinner party. Set carefully, minimum wages can provide such an example. But policymakers must not assume this is a cast-iron law.

Big rises in minimum wages are a gamble with people’s futures...

In America campaigners want the federal minimum wage more than doubled from today’s stingy $7.25 an hour to $15 an hour, or 77% of median hourly income...

One danger is that a high minimum wage will push some workers out of the labour force for good.

A building worker who loses his job in a recession can expect to find a new one when the economy picks up.

A cashier with few skills who, following the introduction of a high minimum wage, becomes permanently more expensive than a self-service checkout machine will have no such luck.

The British government’s defence of its new policy—that a strong economy will generate enough jobs to replace those lost to a higher minimum wage—is disingenuous: the jobs are still lost.

That is why Milton Friedman described minimum wages as a form of discrimination against the low-skilled...
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Link: http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21659741-global-movement-toward-much-higher-minimum-wages-dangerous-reckless-wager?

Friday, July 24, 2015

Seattle sees fallout from $15 minimum wage

Living wages might be forcing some living adjustments in lifestyle - and government benefits.

And small business owners are getting crushed by government regulations.  What should be done?

You pay the tab.  You decide!  PB
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From FoxNews.com:

Seattle’s $15 minimum wage law is supposed to lift workers out of poverty and move them off public assistance.

But there may be a hitch in the plan.

Evidence is surfacing that some workers are asking their bosses for fewer hours as their wages rise – in a bid to keep overall income down so they don’t lose public subsidies for things like food, child care and rent.

Full Life Care, a home nursing nonprofit, told KIRO-TV in Seattle that several workers want to work less...

Despite a booming economy throughout western Washington, the state’s welfare caseload has dropped very little since the higher wage phase began in Seattle in April.

In March 130,851 people were enrolled in the Basic Food program. In April, the caseload dropped to 130,376.

At the same time, prices appear to be going up on just about everything.

Some restaurants have tacked on a 15 percent surcharge to cover the higher wages.

And some managers are no longer encouraging customers to tip, leading to a redistribution of income.

Workers in the back of the kitchen, such as dishwashers and cooks, are getting paid more, but servers who rely on tips are seeing a pay cut.

Some long-time Seattle restaurants have closed altogether, though none of the owners publicly blamed the minimum wage law.

“It’s what happens when the government imposes a restriction on the labor market that normally wouldn’t be there, and marginal businesses get hit the hardest, and usually those are small, neighborhood businesses,” said Paul Guppy, of the Washington Policy Center...
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Link: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/07/22/seattle-sees-fallout-from-15-minimum-wage-as-other-cities-follow-suit/?

Thursday, July 23, 2015

Social Security disability fund to run dry next year: Greece is the word, the word that you heard...

Cuts are coming.  Unfunded liabilities continue.  But the full realization of those costs is kicked down the road.  Sound familiar?

Huge social disruption is baked into our future by the phoniness of political promises.  We can't pay our future debt.  We might soon see flickers of social tension in the SSI disability system as the AP reports below.

Today's crisis in Greece is baked into our future.  Light the cheese.  Opa!

About 15 years from now the flashpoints will begin to erupt in our society.

Greece in America, anyone? 

Those great seers the Bee Gees forecasted this: "grease Greece is the word, is the word that you heard..."  PB


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From the Associated Press online:

"The 11 million Americans who receive Social Security disability face steep benefit cuts next year, the government said Wednesday, handing lawmakers a fiscal and political crisis in the middle of a presidential campaign.

The trustees who oversee Social Security and Medicare said the disability trust fund will run out of money in late 2016

That would trigger an automatic 19 percent cut in benefits, unless Congress acts.

The average monthly benefit for disabled workers and their families is $1,017.

The typical beneficiary would see a reduction of $193 a month...

Separately, about 7 million Medicare beneficiaries could face a monthly premium increase of at least $54 for outpatient coverage. That works out to an increase of more than 50 percent.

The annual report card on the financial health of Social Security and Medicare shows that the federal government's largest benefit programs are feeling the strain of aging baby boomers as they both approach milestone anniversaries.

Medicare turns 50 at the end of the month and Social Security turns 80 two weeks later.

Together, the programs accounted for more than 40 percent of federal spending last year..."
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http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_SOCIAL_SECURITY_MEDICARE?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2015-07-22-17-11-13

Friday, July 17, 2015

Google records 1-day windfall of $65 Billion

Is Google the new Greece?  Newfound austerity?  Who knew austerity could be so wealth inducing?  PB
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From the Associated Press online:

Google's stock roared out of a long slumber Friday to produce the biggest shareholder windfall in U.S. history as investors rewarded the Internet company for promising to curb its spending on risky projects.

A 16 percent surge in Google's publicly traded stock translated into an additional $65.1 billion in shareholder wealth, on paper at least...

Google's gigantic run-up came after the Mountain View, California, company reported quarterly earnings that topped analyst estimates for the first time since late 2013. The company's inability to hit the targets that steer investors had raised doubts about Google that had caused its stock to lag the rest of the market since the end of 2013.

Investors were even more impressed with a message of newfound austerity delivered by Google's new chief financial officer, Ruth Porat. In prepared remarks and in responses to analyst questions posed in a late Thursday conference call, Porat repeatedly stressed that Google intends to control its costs more diligently.

The words placated investors who had become increasingly frustrated with Google's penchant for spending on projects that had little or nothing to do with its man business of Internet search and advertising - areas that the company has long dominated...
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Link: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_GOOGLE_STOCK_SURGE?

Thursday, July 16, 2015

Steve Moore: My Debate With Paul Krugmann

From Investors.com:

Last week (Stephen Moore) debated New York Times columnist and Nobel-prize-winning economist Paul Krugman in front of 2,000 people at FreedomFest in Las Vegas. It was billed as the economic showdown of the year, and the major theme was socialism vs. capitalism.

Given the financial turmoil in Greece, Puerto Rico, Argentina and most of the eurozone, it would be hard to think of a worse time for Krugman to be defending big government.

That might explain why at the last minute he got cold feet and vetoed cameras in the auditorium. That was a huge disappointment because the debate should have been seen by hundreds of thousands of people...

Krugman is witty and sharp and a staunch advocate of nearly everything government does. He defended the Postal Service, ObamaCare, Medicare, the minimum wage and the welfare state — which he says is rapidly shrinking...

My main attack was that socialism, progressivism, Krugmanism — whatever "ism" you call it — is in collapse everywhere: Greece, Portugal, Argentina, Puerto Rico, Connecticut, etc.

He had a tough time explaining the meltdown in Greece. It's a socialistic state that has high tax rates on the rich, generous welfare benefits, strong unions, a tight regulatory environment and all the other things Krugman preaches — and it's now functionally bankrupt.

He argued that the creditors are being too harsh and that there has been too much government austerity. But there is no Greek austerity. Government spending climbed to 59% of GDP in 2013 and is still at 49%. Debt as a share of GDP has soared to 175%. This is a spending splurge, not austerity...

Medicare is apparently the glittering success story of government, yet it's running unfunded liabilities in the tens of trillions of dollars.

Krugman was lamest in explaining the migration of a thousand people a day from blue states to red. Blue states follow Krugman's advice with higher tax rates, costly welfare programs, forced union laws and tort systems that reward trial lawyers over people and businesses. He did concede that land-use restrictions in blue states were deterring development.

His response to the far superior economic performance of Texas and Florida over California and New York, for example, was to argue that the migration is due to air conditioning. Most of the audience howled at that one, but he wasn't joking. Apparently people are moving from San Diego to Houston for the weather.

At the end of the debate we were asked what three policies would be best for promoting prosperity in America. I argued for school choice, personal accounts for Social Security and a flat tax. He argued for more power to unions to reduce income inequality.

He wants to give more power to unions that have bankrupted the steel industry, the auto industry, the states, localities, public school systems and all of Europe. This is a remedy?

Krugman blamed Republicans, George W. Bush and capitalism for the Great Recession. But I couldn't resist noting that Krugman never wants to take responsibility for his own policy blunders.

In late 2002 he advised that "to fight this recession the Fed needs more than a snapback; it needs soaring household spending to offset moribund business investment." And to do that "Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble." We got the Krugman housing bubble; the rest is history.

My big takeaway from the debate is that advocates of free-market capitalism need to aggressively call out the Krugman-Obama-New York Times-Hillary Clinton-IMF crowd for bringing misery and decline to so many places around the world with their wildly irresponsible debt and spending policies. They're on the run because their model is imploding right before our very eyes here in the U.S. and around the world.

Perhaps worst of all, their obsession with income inequality and spreading the wealth is only making the poor poorer, and driving the middle class downward, as even Clinton herself acknowledged this week.

Krugman and his followers are on the losing side of history. No wonder he didn't want this debate televised.
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Link: http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials-viewpoint/071515-761805-steve-moore-takes-on-paul-krugmann-at-freedomfest.htm

Friday, July 10, 2015

McDonald's: We Swear those 'Minions' aren't Swearing - "para la bukay" `'hahaha" "eh eh"

From the Associated Press online:

McDonald's says there are no plans to take a talking Happy Meal toy out of distribution, even though some customers say it sounds like it uses curse words.

The fast-food restaurant introduced a Happy Meal on July 3 with toys inspired by the movie "Minions."

The Oak Brook, Illinois-based company issued a statement saying the sounds the small yellow figures make are nonsense words, nothing offensive or profane.

It says that the Minion Caveman toy makes three sounds - "para la bukay," `'hahaha" and "eh eh."



A toy acquired by The Associated Press made a sound that could be interpreted as an obscene phrase commonly abbreviated as "WTF."
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Link: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_MCDONALDS_TOY?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2015-07-10-12-58-33

Thursday, July 2, 2015

CNBC: What's the real unemployment rate? 10.5%

From CNBC.com:

The U.S. Labor Department said Thursday that the unemployment rate was 5.3 percent in June—but does that rate tell the real story?

A number of economists look past the "main" unemployment rate to a different figure the Bureau of Labor Statistics calls "U-6," which it defines as "total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of all civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers."

In other words, the unemployed, the underemployed and the discouraged—a rate that still remains high.

The U-6 rate fell in June to 10.5 percent, the lowest it's been since July 2008.

The trend in U-6 has been somewhat more volatile than in the main unemployment rate as well. The U-6 rate is down 150 basis points over the last year, versus a 80 basis point decline in the main rate (also known as U-3).

The U-6 rate has held firm in the double digits since June 2008.  It most recently peaked at 17.1 percent in April 2010.
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Link: http://www.cnbc.com/id/102734393