The Expansion Limps Ahead

From Gene Epstein at Barrons.com:

Rumors of its death have been greatly exaggerated, although it has often resembled the walking wounded, if not occasionally the walking dead. While the economic expansion has set records for sickliness, it does celebrate its third birthday next month, which offers some evidence of its durability....

Growth over the 12 calendar quarters has averaged a bit less than an annual 2.4%, assuming the Blue Chip consensus of 50 forecasters is right about real GDP growth in the current quarter (+2.2%). How sickly is that? So sickly, in fact, that if you go back to 1950, and examine all previous cycles of expansion, you find there has never been a 12-quarter period of expansion that ran as slow as 2.4%.

Add the fact that growth usually runs much faster following a deep recession, and this three-year period's dubious distinction gets even starker. Following the deep recessions of 1974-75 and 1981-82, the first 12 quarters of growth averaged 4.5% and 5.8%, respectively.

Even following the mild recessions of 1990-91 and 2001, growth over the first 12 quarters ran, respectively, 3.2% and 2.9%....

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Link: http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111904370004577398063019217658.html?mod=BOL_hpp_dc