From the WSJ.com:
The U.S. unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.2% in June but a broader measure rose to 14.9% as the ranks of the underemployed grew.
The jobless rate was unchanged even at the number of people who consider themselves employed jumped by 128,000...
Meanwhile, the broader unemployment rate, known as the “U-6″ for its data classification by the Labor Department, was up even higher in June. The U-6 figure includes everyone in the official rate plus “marginally attached workers” — those who are neither working nor looking for work, but say they want a job and have looked for work recently; and people who are employed part-time for economic reasons, meaning they want full-time work but took a part-time schedule instead because that’s all they could find....
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Link: http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/07/06/broader-jobless-rate-ticks-up-to-14-9/
Saturday, July 7, 2012
Disability Ranks Outpace New Jobs
From Investor's Business Daily online:
More workers joined the federal government's disability program in June than got new jobs, according to two new government reports, a clear indicator of how bleak the nation's jobs picture is after three full years of economic recovery.
The economy created just 80,000 jobs in June, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. But that same month, 85,000 workers left the workforce entirely to enroll in the Social Security Disability Insurance program, according to the Social Security Administration....
Other indicators show that the three-year-old economic recovery isn't producing jobs in adequate numbers:
The unemployment rate has been above 8% for 41 consecutive months. In the previous 60 years, the jobless topped 8% in a total of only 39 months.
The number of people with jobs is still nearly 5 million below its pre-recession peak.
The number of long-term unemployed — those out of work 27 weeks or more — is still 5.4 million — almost 1 million higher than when the recovery began...
--------------
Link: http://news.investors.com/article/617233/201207061636/disability-climbs-faster-than-jobs-under-obama.htm?p=full
More workers joined the federal government's disability program in June than got new jobs, according to two new government reports, a clear indicator of how bleak the nation's jobs picture is after three full years of economic recovery.
The economy created just 80,000 jobs in June, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. But that same month, 85,000 workers left the workforce entirely to enroll in the Social Security Disability Insurance program, according to the Social Security Administration....
Other indicators show that the three-year-old economic recovery isn't producing jobs in adequate numbers:
The unemployment rate has been above 8% for 41 consecutive months. In the previous 60 years, the jobless topped 8% in a total of only 39 months.
The number of people with jobs is still nearly 5 million below its pre-recession peak.
The number of long-term unemployed — those out of work 27 weeks or more — is still 5.4 million — almost 1 million higher than when the recovery began...
--------------
Link: http://news.investors.com/article/617233/201207061636/disability-climbs-faster-than-jobs-under-obama.htm?p=full
Tuesday, July 3, 2012
Sluggish Economy Plagues Europe
From the WSJ.com:
Euro-zone manufacturing activity contracted sharply in June and unemployment hit a record, in the latest sign that Europe's economic problems are worsening amid the region's debt crisis and a broader global slowdown.
The data put added pressure on the European Central Bank to reduce its key interest rate when it meets Thursday, a move that would bring the euro bloc's monetary policy into expansionary territory unmatched even in the aftermath of the Lehman Brothers collapse in September 2008....
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Link: http://online.wsj.com/public/page/news-economy.html
Euro-zone manufacturing activity contracted sharply in June and unemployment hit a record, in the latest sign that Europe's economic problems are worsening amid the region's debt crisis and a broader global slowdown.
The data put added pressure on the European Central Bank to reduce its key interest rate when it meets Thursday, a move that would bring the euro bloc's monetary policy into expansionary territory unmatched even in the aftermath of the Lehman Brothers collapse in September 2008....
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Link: http://online.wsj.com/public/page/news-economy.html
Monday, July 2, 2012
Manufacturing shrinks: first time in three years
From Reuters.com:
U.S. manufacturing shrank in June for the first time in nearly three years as new orders plummeted, one measure of the sector that showed the starkest sign yet of the extent of the slowdown in the economy....
It was the first time since July 2009 that the index has fallen below the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction. That was shortly after the U.S. economy emerged from recession.
Manufacturing has been one of the drivers of the U.S. economic recovery, which now appears to be losing momentum over fears about the euro zone's debt crisis, a slowdown in China and uncertainty over domestic fiscal policy.
-----------------
Link: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/02/us-usa-economy-manufacturing-idUSBRE8610QT20120702
U.S. manufacturing shrank in June for the first time in nearly three years as new orders plummeted, one measure of the sector that showed the starkest sign yet of the extent of the slowdown in the economy....
It was the first time since July 2009 that the index has fallen below the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction. That was shortly after the U.S. economy emerged from recession.
Manufacturing has been one of the drivers of the U.S. economic recovery, which now appears to be losing momentum over fears about the euro zone's debt crisis, a slowdown in China and uncertainty over domestic fiscal policy.
-----------------
Link: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/02/us-usa-economy-manufacturing-idUSBRE8610QT20120702
U.S. hires Private Lawyers to grab Bank Account of 1st Grade teacher for loan default
From Bloomberg.com:
Lawyers drained Linda Brice’s bank account and seized a quarter of her take-home pay, or more than $900 a month. Brice, a first-grade teacher and Coast Guard veteran, begged for mercy, saying she couldn’t afford food, gas or utilities.
Brice’s transgression: she defaulted on $3,100 she had borrowed more than 30 years ago to pay for college. The chief federal judge in Los Angeles took her side, ruling that Brice should pay only $25 a month. The law firm of Goldsmith & Hull -- representing the federal government -- then withdrew $2,496 from her bank account.
“I am at the end of my rope,” Brice wrote in a May 2009 court filing. “I apologize for taking the court’s time, but I simply do not know what to do....”
When the U.S. Education Department fails to get repaid, the agency can turn borrowers’ names over to federal prosecutors. In turn, U.S. attorneys are hiring private law firms to retrieve money for taxpayers -- after the firms keep a cut for themselves....
----------------
Link: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-02/teacher-s-wages-garnished-as-u-s-goes-after-loan-default.html
Lawyers drained Linda Brice’s bank account and seized a quarter of her take-home pay, or more than $900 a month. Brice, a first-grade teacher and Coast Guard veteran, begged for mercy, saying she couldn’t afford food, gas or utilities.
Brice’s transgression: she defaulted on $3,100 she had borrowed more than 30 years ago to pay for college. The chief federal judge in Los Angeles took her side, ruling that Brice should pay only $25 a month. The law firm of Goldsmith & Hull -- representing the federal government -- then withdrew $2,496 from her bank account.
“I am at the end of my rope,” Brice wrote in a May 2009 court filing. “I apologize for taking the court’s time, but I simply do not know what to do....”
When the U.S. Education Department fails to get repaid, the agency can turn borrowers’ names over to federal prosecutors. In turn, U.S. attorneys are hiring private law firms to retrieve money for taxpayers -- after the firms keep a cut for themselves....
----------------
Link: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-02/teacher-s-wages-garnished-as-u-s-goes-after-loan-default.html
Factory slump in Asia - more to come?
From Reuters.com:
A factory slump in Asia's two biggest exporters China and Japan deepened in June as crumbling orders from abroad dragged activity to seven-month lows, heightening worries that the health of the global economy is deteriorating.
...The data increases the risk that the economies of major demand centers Europe and the United States may be weaker than previously thought. Purchasing managers' reports on the two regions are due to be published later on Monday.
The latest sign that China's economy is struggling came on Monday with a private purchasing managers' index (PMI) showing factory activity shrank at its fastest pace in seven months in June....
-----------
Link: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/02/us-global-economy-idUSBRE86107X20120702
A factory slump in Asia's two biggest exporters China and Japan deepened in June as crumbling orders from abroad dragged activity to seven-month lows, heightening worries that the health of the global economy is deteriorating.
...The data increases the risk that the economies of major demand centers Europe and the United States may be weaker than previously thought. Purchasing managers' reports on the two regions are due to be published later on Monday.
The latest sign that China's economy is struggling came on Monday with a private purchasing managers' index (PMI) showing factory activity shrank at its fastest pace in seven months in June....
-----------
Link: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/02/us-global-economy-idUSBRE86107X20120702
Friday, June 29, 2012
Consumer Spending Stalls
from Bloomberg.com:
Consumer spending stalled in May as stagnant wages and slackening employment held back the biggest part of the U.S. economy.
Purchases were little changed after a 0.1 percent rise the prior month that was smaller than initially reported, according to Commerce Department figures issued today in Washington....
---------------
Link: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-29/u-s-consumer-spending-unchanged-in-may-weakest-in-six-months.html
______________________
From the WSJ.com:
Consumers Become More Pessimistic
U.S. consumers were more worried about the economy at the end of June than they were last month, according to data released Friday....
Consumers are benefiting from a decline in gasoline prices, but they are worried about weaker labor markets and financial-market volatility caused by uncertainty about the euro-zone debt crisis...
The sentiment drop clouds the outlook for the important consumer sector which accounts for the bulk of U.S. economic activity. Earlier Friday, the government reported household spending was flat in May....
------------------
Link: http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/06/29/consumers-become-more-pessimistic/
Consumer spending stalled in May as stagnant wages and slackening employment held back the biggest part of the U.S. economy.
Purchases were little changed after a 0.1 percent rise the prior month that was smaller than initially reported, according to Commerce Department figures issued today in Washington....
---------------
Link: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-29/u-s-consumer-spending-unchanged-in-may-weakest-in-six-months.html
______________________
From the WSJ.com:
Consumers Become More Pessimistic
U.S. consumers were more worried about the economy at the end of June than they were last month, according to data released Friday....
Consumers are benefiting from a decline in gasoline prices, but they are worried about weaker labor markets and financial-market volatility caused by uncertainty about the euro-zone debt crisis...
The sentiment drop clouds the outlook for the important consumer sector which accounts for the bulk of U.S. economic activity. Earlier Friday, the government reported household spending was flat in May....
------------------
Link: http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/06/29/consumers-become-more-pessimistic/
Thursday, June 28, 2012
42 Straight Months of Stupidly Optimistic Official Predictions About Economic Recovery
From Reason.com:
Once-a-month quotes from the Obama administration and the media about how the economy will be booming any minute now:
Washington economic experts have been proclaiming that economic recovery is right around the corner since before they were sure the patient was sick.
For those of us who have been saying all along that none of the economic interventions since 2007 would revive the economy—
not the rescue of Bear Stearns and other financial institutions; not the Troubled Asset Relief Program; not the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act; not Quantitative Easings I, II, and III; not the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act; not Cash for Clunkers or Solyndra or the bailouts of Chrysler and General Motors—
the cavalcade of wrongheaded, fantastical economic analysis coming out of official Washington and its media in recent years would be hilarious if it were not so infuriating.
The granddaddy of these economic inanities is Federal Reserve Bank chairman Ben Bernanke's March 2009 declaration that he could see economic "green shoots":
"I think as those green shoots begin to appear in different markets and as some confidence begins to come back, that will begin the positive dynamic that brings our economy back."
Copy and paste this link for all 42 quotes:
http://reason.com/archives/2012/06/27/economic-recovery-stupid-predictions
Once-a-month quotes from the Obama administration and the media about how the economy will be booming any minute now:
Washington economic experts have been proclaiming that economic recovery is right around the corner since before they were sure the patient was sick.
For those of us who have been saying all along that none of the economic interventions since 2007 would revive the economy—
not the rescue of Bear Stearns and other financial institutions; not the Troubled Asset Relief Program; not the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act; not Quantitative Easings I, II, and III; not the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act; not Cash for Clunkers or Solyndra or the bailouts of Chrysler and General Motors—
the cavalcade of wrongheaded, fantastical economic analysis coming out of official Washington and its media in recent years would be hilarious if it were not so infuriating.
The granddaddy of these economic inanities is Federal Reserve Bank chairman Ben Bernanke's March 2009 declaration that he could see economic "green shoots":
"I think as those green shoots begin to appear in different markets and as some confidence begins to come back, that will begin the positive dynamic that brings our economy back."
Copy and paste this link for all 42 quotes:
http://reason.com/archives/2012/06/27/economic-recovery-stupid-predictions
Monday, June 25, 2012
Treasury Yields Could Hit 1% by Year End
From CNBC:
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields will hit 1 percent by the end of the year, as the so-called "fiscal cliff" has investors running to the safety of government debt, several market watchers told CNBC on Monday.
Gerard Minack, Asset Manager at Morgan Stanley, got the bearish ball rolling on CNBC Asia's "Squawk Box." He said investor anxiety about the tax increases and spending cuts which will happen at the start of next year, could be the catalyst for a U.S. recession and a fresh plunge in yields.
"We know exactly when the next U.S. recession is going to start. It'll start January 1, 2013," said Minack. "We see a very small window from ... (election day) to December 31 to sort that mess out. It's going to make last year's debt ceiling debate look like a walk in the park."
The debt-ceiling debate was a major risk event in the U.S. last year which triggered a plunge in stock markets....
---------------
Link: http://www.cnbc.com/id/47942700
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields will hit 1 percent by the end of the year, as the so-called "fiscal cliff" has investors running to the safety of government debt, several market watchers told CNBC on Monday.
Gerard Minack, Asset Manager at Morgan Stanley, got the bearish ball rolling on CNBC Asia's "Squawk Box." He said investor anxiety about the tax increases and spending cuts which will happen at the start of next year, could be the catalyst for a U.S. recession and a fresh plunge in yields.
"We know exactly when the next U.S. recession is going to start. It'll start January 1, 2013," said Minack. "We see a very small window from ... (election day) to December 31 to sort that mess out. It's going to make last year's debt ceiling debate look like a walk in the park."
The debt-ceiling debate was a major risk event in the U.S. last year which triggered a plunge in stock markets....
---------------
Link: http://www.cnbc.com/id/47942700
Saturday, June 23, 2012
For Middle-Aged Job Seekers, a Long Road Back
From the Wall Street Journal online:
...Much of the attention during the prolonged U.S. employment crisis has been on high rates of joblessness among young people.
Less noticed, but no less significant to many economists, has been the plight of the middle-aged.
More than 3.5 million Americans between the ages of 45 and 64 were unemployed as of May, 39% of them for a year or more—a rate of long-term unemployment that is unprecedented in modern U.S. history, and far higher than among younger workers. Millions more have quit looking for work or ... have taken part-time jobs to get by.
"I try not to think that this is the end and I'm just going to have to shut everything down," Mr. Daniel says. "My mind doesn't work that way. I think that if I can get up I'll find something. I've got to keep moving."
The two decades between 40 and 60 are meant to be workers' prime years for earning and building wealth, the period when they buy homes, send children to college and save for retirement.
Unemployment, especially for an extended period, can short-circuit that process. The effect can span generations, because middle-age workers are more likely to be supporting retired parents, sending their children to college or supporting adult children.
Part of what set the most recent recession apart from the milder downturns of the 1990s and early 2000s, argues Steven Davis, an economist at the University of Chicago, is that this recession didn't primarily strike young workers, or those with erratic work histories. It also hit productive, steady workers in the prime of their careers—people who are ordinarily the backbone of the economy.
In the 1990s, the unemployment rate among 45- to 64-year-olds peaked at 5.7%. In the brutal downturn of the 1980s, that jobless rate barely topped 7%. This time, it topped out at 8.2%....
----------------
Link: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303506404577448751320412974.html
...Much of the attention during the prolonged U.S. employment crisis has been on high rates of joblessness among young people.
Less noticed, but no less significant to many economists, has been the plight of the middle-aged.
More than 3.5 million Americans between the ages of 45 and 64 were unemployed as of May, 39% of them for a year or more—a rate of long-term unemployment that is unprecedented in modern U.S. history, and far higher than among younger workers. Millions more have quit looking for work or ... have taken part-time jobs to get by.
"I try not to think that this is the end and I'm just going to have to shut everything down," Mr. Daniel says. "My mind doesn't work that way. I think that if I can get up I'll find something. I've got to keep moving."
The two decades between 40 and 60 are meant to be workers' prime years for earning and building wealth, the period when they buy homes, send children to college and save for retirement.
Unemployment, especially for an extended period, can short-circuit that process. The effect can span generations, because middle-age workers are more likely to be supporting retired parents, sending their children to college or supporting adult children.
Part of what set the most recent recession apart from the milder downturns of the 1990s and early 2000s, argues Steven Davis, an economist at the University of Chicago, is that this recession didn't primarily strike young workers, or those with erratic work histories. It also hit productive, steady workers in the prime of their careers—people who are ordinarily the backbone of the economy.
In the 1990s, the unemployment rate among 45- to 64-year-olds peaked at 5.7%. In the brutal downturn of the 1980s, that jobless rate barely topped 7%. This time, it topped out at 8.2%....
----------------
Link: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303506404577448751320412974.html
Get used to your crummy shopping center
From MarketWatch.com:
If there’s a crummy shopping center in your neighborhood, it will probably only get crummier....
“How many times have you passed something in your own neighborhood and asked ‘why don’t they do something about that eyesore?’” Don Wood [chief executive officer of Federal Realty Investment Trust] said ... on Wednesday. “Why do things stay crummy year in and year out, and why will they stay crummy year in and year out?”
The nation is increasingly dotted with unsightly boxes that used to be Circuit City, Borders and Best Buy stores. Nobody has written a book called “101 Uses For A Used Blockbuster.” And there are only so many churches, tanning salons and “We Buy Gold” stores to fill these deteriorating spaces...
“Redevelopment is more likely to happen in places that don’t really need it,” said Wood. “In places that are great already.”
Nevertheless, almost every city official in the nation wants to turn their local retail blights into lovely mixed-use monoliths with fancy stores and restaurants on ground floors and pricey lofts and condos upstairs.
This simply isn’t going to work without a high density of upper-income households, Wood said, and in places where it will work, the development process takes years....
-------------
Link: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/get-used-to-your-crummy-shopping-center-2012-06-22
If there’s a crummy shopping center in your neighborhood, it will probably only get crummier....
“How many times have you passed something in your own neighborhood and asked ‘why don’t they do something about that eyesore?’” Don Wood [chief executive officer of Federal Realty Investment Trust] said ... on Wednesday. “Why do things stay crummy year in and year out, and why will they stay crummy year in and year out?”
The nation is increasingly dotted with unsightly boxes that used to be Circuit City, Borders and Best Buy stores. Nobody has written a book called “101 Uses For A Used Blockbuster.” And there are only so many churches, tanning salons and “We Buy Gold” stores to fill these deteriorating spaces...
“Redevelopment is more likely to happen in places that don’t really need it,” said Wood. “In places that are great already.”
Nevertheless, almost every city official in the nation wants to turn their local retail blights into lovely mixed-use monoliths with fancy stores and restaurants on ground floors and pricey lofts and condos upstairs.
This simply isn’t going to work without a high density of upper-income households, Wood said, and in places where it will work, the development process takes years....
-------------
Link: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/get-used-to-your-crummy-shopping-center-2012-06-22
Friday, June 22, 2012
Jobs Get Posted, Few Get Filled
From today's WSJ.com:
...Now the recovery appears to be faltering again, giving companies even less incentive to hire. That could spell further trouble for job growth in months ahead, especially if companies go back to slashing payrolls.
There are signs this already is happening. Private employers laid off 71,000 more workers in April than the month before. New claims for jobless benefits, which had been falling steadily since last fall, have trended upward in recent weeks.... the four-week moving average, which smooths out weekly volatility, reached its highest level last week since December.
Such a relatively modest uptick in layoffs wouldn't matter much if healthy companies were stepping up the pace at which they were adding jobs. But the recovery's repeated starts and stops have left even growing companies nervous about hiring too quickly—a caution that has only increased as Europe's debt crisis has raised the risk of a new global slowdown....
The collapse of the labor market in 2008 and 2009 stemmed from both a plunge in hiring and a surge in layoffs. Before the recession, private companies generally hired close to five million workers a month, a figure that dropped as low as 3.4 million in the depths of the recession. Monthly layoffs and firings, meanwhile, rose from about 1.7 million to a peak of nearly 2.5 million in early 2009....
There are signs of hope for the unemployed. Job openings have been steadily rising since the recession ended, though openings fell slightly in April. Historically, vacant positions have translated into increased hiring in the coming months.
So far, however, that hasn't happened. Many companies say they are filling positions slowly in part because they can't find the workers they need....
But many experts say that companies' complaints mask the real issue: They are in no hurry to hire when the economy is on such shaky ground. A recent study by Mr. Faberman and a Chicago Fed colleague found that a mismatch between workers' skills and employers' needs played a relatively small role in explaining the slow rate of hiring. Meanwhile, a separate measure of "recruiting intensity"—how hard companies are trying to fill jobs—shows that even as companies have posted more jobs, they haven't stepped up their efforts to fill them....
---------------------
Link: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304441404577480771351072052.html
...Now the recovery appears to be faltering again, giving companies even less incentive to hire. That could spell further trouble for job growth in months ahead, especially if companies go back to slashing payrolls.
There are signs this already is happening. Private employers laid off 71,000 more workers in April than the month before. New claims for jobless benefits, which had been falling steadily since last fall, have trended upward in recent weeks.... the four-week moving average, which smooths out weekly volatility, reached its highest level last week since December.
Such a relatively modest uptick in layoffs wouldn't matter much if healthy companies were stepping up the pace at which they were adding jobs. But the recovery's repeated starts and stops have left even growing companies nervous about hiring too quickly—a caution that has only increased as Europe's debt crisis has raised the risk of a new global slowdown....
The collapse of the labor market in 2008 and 2009 stemmed from both a plunge in hiring and a surge in layoffs. Before the recession, private companies generally hired close to five million workers a month, a figure that dropped as low as 3.4 million in the depths of the recession. Monthly layoffs and firings, meanwhile, rose from about 1.7 million to a peak of nearly 2.5 million in early 2009....
There are signs of hope for the unemployed. Job openings have been steadily rising since the recession ended, though openings fell slightly in April. Historically, vacant positions have translated into increased hiring in the coming months.
So far, however, that hasn't happened. Many companies say they are filling positions slowly in part because they can't find the workers they need....
But many experts say that companies' complaints mask the real issue: They are in no hurry to hire when the economy is on such shaky ground. A recent study by Mr. Faberman and a Chicago Fed colleague found that a mismatch between workers' skills and employers' needs played a relatively small role in explaining the slow rate of hiring. Meanwhile, a separate measure of "recruiting intensity"—how hard companies are trying to fill jobs—shows that even as companies have posted more jobs, they haven't stepped up their efforts to fill them....
---------------------
Link: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304441404577480771351072052.html
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