From the well trained mind of that keen observer with the gimlet eye: Scott Adams.
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By the way, Scott Adams would like it if you buy his book: https://www.amazon.com/How-Fail-Almost-Everything-Still/dp/1591847745?
From http://blog.dilbert.com/post/147395227526/cop-killers-versus-racists
"Trump’s biggest problem in this election so far is that most racists appear to be on his side. At least it looks that way to the public.
That awkward perception allowed Team Clinton to brand the Trump campaign as the racist team. Clinton’s strategy of racial politics has been effective. I recently blogged that “crooked” beats “racist” every time, meaning that unless something changes, Clinton has the persuasion advantage.
But today we see in the polls that the candidates are effectively tied. What changed?
The biggest change is not the FBI’s decision on Clinton’s email scandal, although that is clearly part of it. To my eyes, the biggest change is that Clinton’s team just became the cop-killing side. At least that’s how it looks to our irrational minds.
Your brain thinks cops are probably Trump supporters (true or not) while you probably see cop-killers as Clinton supporters (true or not). And that means the recent slaughter of five policemen in Dallas changed your mental equation.
Now it seems – to our irrational minds – that we no longer have a contest between crooked and racist.
Now we have a contest between cop-killers and racists. And in that contest, the racists win. That’s because most folks see in themselves at least a little bit of racial bias, but almost none of us see ourselves as cop-killers.
So identity politics now favors racist because the alternative is cop-killer. There aren’t many ways to make peace-loving racists seem like a good thing, but compared to cop-killers, they come out slightly ahead.
You don’t have to like the current situation. I’m just describing it from a persuasion standpoint. I’m not rooting for the racists.
I still think Trump needs to come out clearly and unambiguously against racial politics. And I expect that to happen.
But the police shootings in Dallas probably changed the Clinton brand enough that Trump can glide into the presidency as things stand now, unless there are new developments.
But stay tuned because there are always new developments.
For new readers of this blog, I endorsed Hillary Clinton for my personal safety, because I live in California. It isn’t safe to say good things about Trump’s talent for persuasion when you live where I live. And my policy preferences don’t align with either candidate.
Speaking of personal safety, no one has ever died while reading my book. But I’m sure whatever you are doing instead of reading my book is fine too. But just to be on the safe side, ask your doctor if it is okay to continue not reading my book."
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Link: http://blog.dilbert.com/post/147395227526/cop-killers-versus-racists
Monday, July 18, 2016
Friday, July 8, 2016
287,000 Jobs in June
A turn around? Hopefully. PB
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From the Associated Press online:
Employers shook off two months of weak hiring by adding 287,000 jobs in June, a robust pace that suggests a resilient U.S. economy recovering from a slump early in the year...
The June hiring spurt marked a sharp improvement from May's dismal showing, when only 11,000 jobs were added, and April's modest gain of 144,000. June's increase was the largest since October 2015...
Even with June's big gain, job growth so far for 2016 trails last year's pace.
Employers added an average of 172,000 jobs a month in the first six months of this year. That's generally enough to lower the unemployment rate, but it's below last year's monthly average of 230,000.
The recent hiring slump had come after the economy grew at a tepid 1.1 percent annual rate in the first three months of the year.
Americans' spending rose at the slowest pace in two years during that time -- a significant drag given that consumer spending drives around 70 percent of the economy...
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Link: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_ECONOMY?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-07-08-13-28-15
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From the Associated Press online:
Employers shook off two months of weak hiring by adding 287,000 jobs in June, a robust pace that suggests a resilient U.S. economy recovering from a slump early in the year...
The June hiring spurt marked a sharp improvement from May's dismal showing, when only 11,000 jobs were added, and April's modest gain of 144,000. June's increase was the largest since October 2015...
Even with June's big gain, job growth so far for 2016 trails last year's pace.
Employers added an average of 172,000 jobs a month in the first six months of this year. That's generally enough to lower the unemployment rate, but it's below last year's monthly average of 230,000.
The recent hiring slump had come after the economy grew at a tepid 1.1 percent annual rate in the first three months of the year.
Americans' spending rose at the slowest pace in two years during that time -- a significant drag given that consumer spending drives around 70 percent of the economy...
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Link: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_ECONOMY?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-07-08-13-28-15
Tuesday, June 28, 2016
Shilling: Oil Is Still Heading to $10 a Barrel
Gary Shilling writing at Bloomberg View:
Back in February 2015, the price of West Texas Intermediate stood at about $52 per barrel, half of its 2014 peak. I argued then that a renewed decline was coming that could drive it below $20, a scenario regarded by oil bulls as unthinkable.
But prices did fall further, dropping all the way to a low of $26 in February. Since then, crude rallied to spend several weeks flirting with $50 per barrel, a level not seen since last year.
But it won't last; I’m sticking to my call for prices to decline anew to $10 to $20 per barrel...
But the world continues to be awash in crude, and American frackers have replaced the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries as the world’s swing producers.
The once-feared oil cartel is, to my mind, pretty much finished as an effective price enforcer.
Even OPEC’s leader, Saudi Arabia, is acknowledging the new reality by quashing recent attempts to freeze output, borrowing from banks and preparing to sell a stake in its Aramco oil company as it tries to find new sources of non-oil revenue...
The price at which major producers chicken out and slash production isn’t determined by the prices needed to balance the budgets of oil producing nations, which are as high as $208 per barrel in Libya and as low as $52 per barrel in Kuwait. Nor is it the "full cycle" or average cost of production that includes drilling costs, overheads, pipelines, etc.
In a price war, the chicken-out point is the price that equals the marginal cost of producing oil from an established well.
Once fracking operations are set up and staffed, leases paid for, drilling underway and pipelines laid, the marginal cost of shale oil for efficient producers in the Permian Basin in Texas is about $10 to $20 per barrel and even lower in the Persian Gulf.
Furthermore, fracking costs continue to fall as productivity improves.
The number of drilling rigs operating in the U.S. continues to drop. But the rigs taken offline are mostly old vertical drillers that drill only one hole per platform, while horizontal rigs -- able to drill 20 to 30 wells per platform like the spokes of a wheel -- increasingly dominate. So output per working rig is accelerating....
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Link: http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-06-28/why-oil-is-still-headed-as-low-as-10-a-barrel
Back in February 2015, the price of West Texas Intermediate stood at about $52 per barrel, half of its 2014 peak. I argued then that a renewed decline was coming that could drive it below $20, a scenario regarded by oil bulls as unthinkable.
But prices did fall further, dropping all the way to a low of $26 in February. Since then, crude rallied to spend several weeks flirting with $50 per barrel, a level not seen since last year.
But it won't last; I’m sticking to my call for prices to decline anew to $10 to $20 per barrel...
But the world continues to be awash in crude, and American frackers have replaced the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries as the world’s swing producers.
The once-feared oil cartel is, to my mind, pretty much finished as an effective price enforcer.
Even OPEC’s leader, Saudi Arabia, is acknowledging the new reality by quashing recent attempts to freeze output, borrowing from banks and preparing to sell a stake in its Aramco oil company as it tries to find new sources of non-oil revenue...
The price at which major producers chicken out and slash production isn’t determined by the prices needed to balance the budgets of oil producing nations, which are as high as $208 per barrel in Libya and as low as $52 per barrel in Kuwait. Nor is it the "full cycle" or average cost of production that includes drilling costs, overheads, pipelines, etc.
In a price war, the chicken-out point is the price that equals the marginal cost of producing oil from an established well.
Once fracking operations are set up and staffed, leases paid for, drilling underway and pipelines laid, the marginal cost of shale oil for efficient producers in the Permian Basin in Texas is about $10 to $20 per barrel and even lower in the Persian Gulf.
Furthermore, fracking costs continue to fall as productivity improves.
The number of drilling rigs operating in the U.S. continues to drop. But the rigs taken offline are mostly old vertical drillers that drill only one hole per platform, while horizontal rigs -- able to drill 20 to 30 wells per platform like the spokes of a wheel -- increasingly dominate. So output per working rig is accelerating....
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Link: http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-06-28/why-oil-is-still-headed-as-low-as-10-a-barrel
Friday, June 10, 2016
Is Kevin Love the "new" David Lee?
Just asking. Warriors at Cavs; game 4, NBA Finals. PB
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From ESPN.com:
...At first glance, that has almost nothing to do with Love. LeBron lets Barnes go, Irving is slow to switch onto him and Barnes obliterates Irving on the block as if he isn't there.
But that breakdown is actually all about Love, even though Love did nothing horribly wrong. Check out Love in the right corner at the start of the play: He's stuck on Klay Thompson. That is the hangover effect of a Golden State defensive switch on the other end that left Thompson guarding Love.
The Warriors love to do that: screw up the matchups, get a stop and make your head spin in transition as you try to snap back into your preferred assignments.
LeBron reads Love on Thompson as a crisis, makes a unilateral decision to switch onto Thompson and expects Love to reciprocate by sliding onto Barnes. Love doesn't reciprocate, and there is nothing worse in this life than unrequited Love. Barnes springs open and finally bullies Irving.
One bit of fretting -- Oh god, Kevin is on Klay! -- triggered a chain of events that tore apart Cleveland's defense in about two seconds. Love's specific limitations compound the anxiety.
He's slow-footed and he has never shaken the maddening habit of admiring his own jumpers while his man leaks out ahead of him. That crap is fatal against the Warriors....
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Link: http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/16097908/2016-nba-finals-cleveland-cavaliers-bring-kevin-love-bench
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From ESPN.com:
...At first glance, that has almost nothing to do with Love. LeBron lets Barnes go, Irving is slow to switch onto him and Barnes obliterates Irving on the block as if he isn't there.
But that breakdown is actually all about Love, even though Love did nothing horribly wrong. Check out Love in the right corner at the start of the play: He's stuck on Klay Thompson. That is the hangover effect of a Golden State defensive switch on the other end that left Thompson guarding Love.
The Warriors love to do that: screw up the matchups, get a stop and make your head spin in transition as you try to snap back into your preferred assignments.
LeBron reads Love on Thompson as a crisis, makes a unilateral decision to switch onto Thompson and expects Love to reciprocate by sliding onto Barnes. Love doesn't reciprocate, and there is nothing worse in this life than unrequited Love. Barnes springs open and finally bullies Irving.
One bit of fretting -- Oh god, Kevin is on Klay! -- triggered a chain of events that tore apart Cleveland's defense in about two seconds. Love's specific limitations compound the anxiety.
He's slow-footed and he has never shaken the maddening habit of admiring his own jumpers while his man leaks out ahead of him. That crap is fatal against the Warriors....
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Link: http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/16097908/2016-nba-finals-cleveland-cavaliers-bring-kevin-love-bench
Friday, June 3, 2016
AP: US hiring grinds to a near-halt; many stop looking for work
From the Associated Press online:
U.S. hiring slowed to a near-standstill in May, sowing doubts about the economy's health and complicating the Federal Reserve's efforts to raise interest rates.
While unemployment slid from 5 percent to 4.7 percent, the lowest since November 2007, the rate fell for a troubling reason: Nearly a half-million jobless Americans stopped looking for work and so were no longer counted as unemployed.
Employers added just 38,000 jobs in May, the fewest in over five years.
Less-educated workers bore the brunt of the hiring slump, with a quarter-million high-school dropouts losing their jobs in May.
That has perpetuated a long-term trend toward a two-tiered job market, with college-educated adults more likely to be employed and earning steady raises.
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Link: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_ECONOMY?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-06-03-15-38-20
U.S. hiring slowed to a near-standstill in May, sowing doubts about the economy's health and complicating the Federal Reserve's efforts to raise interest rates.
While unemployment slid from 5 percent to 4.7 percent, the lowest since November 2007, the rate fell for a troubling reason: Nearly a half-million jobless Americans stopped looking for work and so were no longer counted as unemployed.
Employers added just 38,000 jobs in May, the fewest in over five years.
Less-educated workers bore the brunt of the hiring slump, with a quarter-million high-school dropouts losing their jobs in May.
That has perpetuated a long-term trend toward a two-tiered job market, with college-educated adults more likely to be employed and earning steady raises.
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Link: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_ECONOMY?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-06-03-15-38-20
U2 - U3 - U6 ... What are U looking for?
U2 sings: I still haven't found what I'm looking for...
U3 says: Official Unemployment Rate is 4.7%
U6 says: Real Unemployment Rate is 9.7% How can this be? Why is the Real Number more than twice as much as the Official Number?
From the Wall Street Journal Online:
The standard measure [U3] of unemployment only includes people who are actively looking for work. Broader measures of unemployment and underemployment have also declined in recent years.
These measures include discouraged and marginally attached workers who would like to work but have given up searching for employment.
The broadest measure [U6] of underemployment was unchanged at 9.7% this month. This measure includes workers who have given up searching and also part-time workers who would prefer to work full time.
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Link: http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/06/03/the-may-jobs-report-in-12-charts-2/
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See the numbers yourself: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm
U3 says: Official Unemployment Rate is 4.7%
U6 says: Real Unemployment Rate is 9.7% How can this be? Why is the Real Number more than twice as much as the Official Number?
From the Wall Street Journal Online:
The standard measure [U3] of unemployment only includes people who are actively looking for work. Broader measures of unemployment and underemployment have also declined in recent years.
These measures include discouraged and marginally attached workers who would like to work but have given up searching for employment.
The broadest measure [U6] of underemployment was unchanged at 9.7% this month. This measure includes workers who have given up searching and also part-time workers who would prefer to work full time.
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Link: http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/06/03/the-may-jobs-report-in-12-charts-2/
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See the numbers yourself: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm
Wednesday, June 1, 2016
DO YOU WANT FRIES WITH YOUR JOB?
From VisualCapitalist.com:
Link: http://www.visualcapitalist.com/do-you-want-fries-with-that-jobs-chart/
Thursday, May 19, 2016
Many job prospects simply walk rather than take the drug test
Three jobs ago it was a cup. Two jobs ago I had to take a TB test. The most recent job required a swab from the cheek inside the mouth. It reminded me of going to the dentist.
Thirty years ago and a few times since I have put ink on my finger tips and given prints. I've had my photo taken, background examined, and finances reviewed.
I've submitted to these various checks.
But I wonder, is there something I said on the playground in the fifth grade lurking somewhere? And what happens if I tell someone I still pray? PB
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From the New York Times online:
[Savannah, GA] A few years back, the heavy-equipment manufacturer JCB held a job fair in the glass foyer of its sprawling headquarters near here, but when a throng of prospective employees learned the next step would be drug testing, an alarming thing happened: About half of them left.
That story still circulates within the business community of this historic port city. But the problem has gotten worse...
Data on the scope of the problem is sketchy because figures on job applicants who test positive for drugs miss the many people who simply skip tests they cannot pass.
...Quest Diagnostics, which has compiled employer-testing data since 1988, documented an increase for a second consecutive year in the percentage of American workers who tested positive for illicit drugs — to 4.7 percent in 2014 from 4.3 percent in 2013. And 2013 was the first year in a decade to show an increase...
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Link: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/18/business/hiring-hurdle-finding-workers-who-can-pass-a-drug-test.html
Thirty years ago and a few times since I have put ink on my finger tips and given prints. I've had my photo taken, background examined, and finances reviewed.
I've submitted to these various checks.
But I wonder, is there something I said on the playground in the fifth grade lurking somewhere? And what happens if I tell someone I still pray? PB
------
From the New York Times online:
[Savannah, GA] A few years back, the heavy-equipment manufacturer JCB held a job fair in the glass foyer of its sprawling headquarters near here, but when a throng of prospective employees learned the next step would be drug testing, an alarming thing happened: About half of them left.
That story still circulates within the business community of this historic port city. But the problem has gotten worse...
Data on the scope of the problem is sketchy because figures on job applicants who test positive for drugs miss the many people who simply skip tests they cannot pass.
...Quest Diagnostics, which has compiled employer-testing data since 1988, documented an increase for a second consecutive year in the percentage of American workers who tested positive for illicit drugs — to 4.7 percent in 2014 from 4.3 percent in 2013. And 2013 was the first year in a decade to show an increase...
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Link: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/18/business/hiring-hurdle-finding-workers-who-can-pass-a-drug-test.html
Wednesday, May 11, 2016
WSJ: Recession’s Economic Trauma Has Left Enduring Scars
According to President Obama, it's just luck. You got connections or you don't. It's the system.
The President recently said, “That’s a pet peeve of mine, people who’ve been successful and don’t realize they’ve been lucky, that God may have blessed them. It wasn’t nothing you did, so don’t have an attitude.”
Oh. So, how's that working out in your economy? PB
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From the Wall Street Journal online:
The recession ended seven years ago, but persistent joblessness and underemployment marred the economic expansion that followed.
A growing body of research suggests the economic trauma has left financial and psychic scars on many Americans, and that those marks are likely to endure for decades.
About one in six U.S. workers became unemployed during the recession years of 2007, 2008 and 2009.
Today, nearly 14 million people are still searching for a job or stuck in part-time jobs because they can’t find full-time work.
Even for the millions of Americans back at work, the effects of losing a job will linger, the research suggests.
They will earn less for years to come...
As in previous recessions, millions of Americans faced a phenomenon economists sometimes call wage scarring.
People who lose a job, even during economic expansions, usually earn less money when they re-enter the workplace.
They are out of work for a time and often take a pay cut as the price of returning to work at a new employer or even in a new career.
This time, the damage was exacerbated by the job market’s painfully slow recovery.
Extended or repeated spells of unemployment mean more severe earnings losses, and recent years have seen an unusually large number of job seekers out of work for more than six months or stuck in part-time positions.
“They had a much harder time finding a job, and in particular a full-time job, which immediately turns into an earnings decline...”
Job loss has more than just financial consequences.
Unemployment often is an isolating experience.
A layoff can strip people of their identity as workers in a chosen field and their workplace-based social network of co-workers and other contacts.
Researchers have linked job loss to stress, depression and feelings of distrust, anxiety and shame...
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Link http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-recessions-economic-trauma-has-left-enduring-scars-1462809318
The President recently said, “That’s a pet peeve of mine, people who’ve been successful and don’t realize they’ve been lucky, that God may have blessed them. It wasn’t nothing you did, so don’t have an attitude.”
Oh. So, how's that working out in your economy? PB
------
From the Wall Street Journal online:
The recession ended seven years ago, but persistent joblessness and underemployment marred the economic expansion that followed.
A growing body of research suggests the economic trauma has left financial and psychic scars on many Americans, and that those marks are likely to endure for decades.
About one in six U.S. workers became unemployed during the recession years of 2007, 2008 and 2009.
Today, nearly 14 million people are still searching for a job or stuck in part-time jobs because they can’t find full-time work.
Even for the millions of Americans back at work, the effects of losing a job will linger, the research suggests.
They will earn less for years to come...
As in previous recessions, millions of Americans faced a phenomenon economists sometimes call wage scarring.
People who lose a job, even during economic expansions, usually earn less money when they re-enter the workplace.
They are out of work for a time and often take a pay cut as the price of returning to work at a new employer or even in a new career.
This time, the damage was exacerbated by the job market’s painfully slow recovery.
Extended or repeated spells of unemployment mean more severe earnings losses, and recent years have seen an unusually large number of job seekers out of work for more than six months or stuck in part-time positions.
“They had a much harder time finding a job, and in particular a full-time job, which immediately turns into an earnings decline...”
Job loss has more than just financial consequences.
Unemployment often is an isolating experience.
A layoff can strip people of their identity as workers in a chosen field and their workplace-based social network of co-workers and other contacts.
Researchers have linked job loss to stress, depression and feelings of distrust, anxiety and shame...
------
Link http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-recessions-economic-trauma-has-left-enduring-scars-1462809318
Saturday, May 7, 2016
Really? Why the continuing unhappiness? The Job Market's Missing Middle
From Bloomberg.com:
Why are so many people unhappy about a U.S. economy that has generated more than 12 million jobs over the past five years?
One explanation: A lot of those jobs don’t pay very well...
Why the disconnect? One possibility is that the mix of jobs being created has been skewed toward low-paying types of work.
This could hold average wage growth down even amid strong overall employment gains and decent raises in individual sectors.
To get a sense of whether this has been happening, I split the total number of private-sector jobs into three wage groups -- high, medium and low, currently paying an average of about $16, $24 and $35 an hour, respectively.
I then tracked each group’s cumulative job losses and gains through the recession and recovery. Here’s how that looks:
The result is troubling for the American middle class.
Low-wage jobs have accounted for the largest share of the recovery, exceeding the pre-recession peak by more than 4 million.
Growth was particularly strong in activities such as waiting tables or caring for the infirm and elderly.
High-wage professions such as management consulting and computer-systems design have gained, too, but not as much.
Meanwhile, the center has suffered: As of April, the number of middle-wage jobs was still more than 250,000 short of the pre-recession peak...
The data fit well with the picture of "polarization" in the U.S. labor market described by economists such as David Autor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Various types of manufacturing jobs, for example, were among the biggest losers in the middle group, supporting the idea that globalization and automation have taken the largest toll on middle-skill jobs.
That leaves jobs that require either a lot of education or the kind of high-touch, personal attention that a robot or an overseas call center can’t provide.
So while millions of people have gotten back to work since the economy hit bottom in mid-2009, it’s not surprising that a lot of them aren’t too pleased about it.
------
LINK: http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-05-06/the-job-market-s-missing-middle
Why are so many people unhappy about a U.S. economy that has generated more than 12 million jobs over the past five years?
One explanation: A lot of those jobs don’t pay very well...
Why the disconnect? One possibility is that the mix of jobs being created has been skewed toward low-paying types of work.
This could hold average wage growth down even amid strong overall employment gains and decent raises in individual sectors.
To get a sense of whether this has been happening, I split the total number of private-sector jobs into three wage groups -- high, medium and low, currently paying an average of about $16, $24 and $35 an hour, respectively.
I then tracked each group’s cumulative job losses and gains through the recession and recovery. Here’s how that looks:
The result is troubling for the American middle class.
Low-wage jobs have accounted for the largest share of the recovery, exceeding the pre-recession peak by more than 4 million.
Growth was particularly strong in activities such as waiting tables or caring for the infirm and elderly.
High-wage professions such as management consulting and computer-systems design have gained, too, but not as much.
Meanwhile, the center has suffered: As of April, the number of middle-wage jobs was still more than 250,000 short of the pre-recession peak...
The data fit well with the picture of "polarization" in the U.S. labor market described by economists such as David Autor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Various types of manufacturing jobs, for example, were among the biggest losers in the middle group, supporting the idea that globalization and automation have taken the largest toll on middle-skill jobs.
That leaves jobs that require either a lot of education or the kind of high-touch, personal attention that a robot or an overseas call center can’t provide.
So while millions of people have gotten back to work since the economy hit bottom in mid-2009, it’s not surprising that a lot of them aren’t too pleased about it.
------
LINK: http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-05-06/the-job-market-s-missing-middle
Monday, April 11, 2016
Rural White Women in Their 40s Die Sooner
Statistics show how low incomes, geography and behavior affect how long one lives. Poor, rural white women are dying at alarming rates. PB
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From the Washington Post online:
White women have been dying prematurely at higher rates since the turn of this century, passing away in their 30s, 40s and 50s in a slow-motion crisis driven by decaying health in small-town America, according to an analysis of national health and mortality statistics by The Washington Post.
Among African Americans, Hispanics and even the oldest white Americans, death rates have continued to fall.
But for white women in what should be the prime of their lives, death rates have spiked upward. In one of the hardest-hit groups — rural white women in their late 40s — the death rate has risen by 30 percent.
The Post’s analysis, which builds on academic research published last year, shows a clear divide in the health of urban and rural Americans, with the gap widening most dramatically among whites.
The statistics reveal two Americas diverging, neither as healthy as it should be but one much sicker than the other.
In modern times, rising death rates are extremely rare and typically involve countries in upheaval, such as Russia immediately after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
In affluent countries, people generally enjoy increasingly long lives, thanks to better cancer treatments; drugs that lower cholesterol and the risk of heart attacks; fewer fatal car accidents; and less violent crime.
But progress for middle-aged white Americans is lagging in many places — and has stopped entirely in smaller cities and towns and the vast open reaches of the country.
The things that reduce the risk of death are now being overwhelmed by things that elevate it, including opioid abuse, heavy drinking, smoking and other self-destructive behaviors...
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Link: http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/national/2016/04/10/a-new-divide-in-american-death/?hpid=hp_rhp-top-table-main_whitedeath-underdisplay%3Ahomepage%2Fstory
------------------------------
Where living poor means dying young
According to a large study published today about how income and geography shape life expectancies, a poor person living in the San Francisco area can expect to live about three years longer than someone making the same income in Detroit.
That difference is equivalent to how much national life expectancies would rise if we eliminated cancer.
"If you think about the cancer comparison, having cancer is not just about having a shorter life. It's also about having an unhealthier life, a much lower quality of life," says Stanford economist Raj Chetty, the lead author of the study, published in the Journal of the American Medical Association. Seven economists, from MIT, Harvard, the U.S. Treasury and McKinsey and Co., were co-authors.
Think about their new data as if the poor in Detroit get cancer and the poor in San Francisco don't. "Then," Chetty says, "you can see that this is a big deal."
The research, based on the tax and Social Security records of everyone in America between 1999 and 2014 with a valid Social Security number and earnings, gives the most precise look yet at a pattern that has long troubled health experts: In America, the richer you are, the longer you live.
But what's especially striking is that the poor live even shorter lives in some places than others. They have longer life expectancies in affluent cities with highly educated populations, such as San Francisco, New York and Los Angeles.
Among the 100 largest commuting zones ranked by the researchers, six of the top eight for low-income life expectancies are in California, a state with a strong safety net and a history of regulating where you light your cigarette or what comes from your car's tailpipe.
The poor live shorter lives in Las Vegas, Louisville and industrial Midwest towns, such as Gary, Ind.
Geography also matters much more for the poor than the rich. The health behaviors of the wealthy are similar wherever they live.
For the poor, their likelihood of risky behaviors such as smoking depends a great deal on geography, on whether they live in a place where smoking is common or where, as in San Francisco, cigarettes have been shunted out of view...
------
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/04/11/where-living-poor-means-dying-young/
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From the Washington Post online:
White women have been dying prematurely at higher rates since the turn of this century, passing away in their 30s, 40s and 50s in a slow-motion crisis driven by decaying health in small-town America, according to an analysis of national health and mortality statistics by The Washington Post.
Among African Americans, Hispanics and even the oldest white Americans, death rates have continued to fall.
But for white women in what should be the prime of their lives, death rates have spiked upward. In one of the hardest-hit groups — rural white women in their late 40s — the death rate has risen by 30 percent.
The Post’s analysis, which builds on academic research published last year, shows a clear divide in the health of urban and rural Americans, with the gap widening most dramatically among whites.
The statistics reveal two Americas diverging, neither as healthy as it should be but one much sicker than the other.
In modern times, rising death rates are extremely rare and typically involve countries in upheaval, such as Russia immediately after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
In affluent countries, people generally enjoy increasingly long lives, thanks to better cancer treatments; drugs that lower cholesterol and the risk of heart attacks; fewer fatal car accidents; and less violent crime.
But progress for middle-aged white Americans is lagging in many places — and has stopped entirely in smaller cities and towns and the vast open reaches of the country.
The things that reduce the risk of death are now being overwhelmed by things that elevate it, including opioid abuse, heavy drinking, smoking and other self-destructive behaviors...
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Link: http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/national/2016/04/10/a-new-divide-in-american-death/?hpid=hp_rhp-top-table-main_whitedeath-underdisplay%3Ahomepage%2Fstory
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Where living poor means dying young
According to a large study published today about how income and geography shape life expectancies, a poor person living in the San Francisco area can expect to live about three years longer than someone making the same income in Detroit.
That difference is equivalent to how much national life expectancies would rise if we eliminated cancer.
"If you think about the cancer comparison, having cancer is not just about having a shorter life. It's also about having an unhealthier life, a much lower quality of life," says Stanford economist Raj Chetty, the lead author of the study, published in the Journal of the American Medical Association. Seven economists, from MIT, Harvard, the U.S. Treasury and McKinsey and Co., were co-authors.
Think about their new data as if the poor in Detroit get cancer and the poor in San Francisco don't. "Then," Chetty says, "you can see that this is a big deal."
The research, based on the tax and Social Security records of everyone in America between 1999 and 2014 with a valid Social Security number and earnings, gives the most precise look yet at a pattern that has long troubled health experts: In America, the richer you are, the longer you live.
But what's especially striking is that the poor live even shorter lives in some places than others. They have longer life expectancies in affluent cities with highly educated populations, such as San Francisco, New York and Los Angeles.
Among the 100 largest commuting zones ranked by the researchers, six of the top eight for low-income life expectancies are in California, a state with a strong safety net and a history of regulating where you light your cigarette or what comes from your car's tailpipe.
The poor live shorter lives in Las Vegas, Louisville and industrial Midwest towns, such as Gary, Ind.
Geography also matters much more for the poor than the rich. The health behaviors of the wealthy are similar wherever they live.
For the poor, their likelihood of risky behaviors such as smoking depends a great deal on geography, on whether they live in a place where smoking is common or where, as in San Francisco, cigarettes have been shunted out of view...
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/04/11/where-living-poor-means-dying-young/
Friday, April 1, 2016
Ya think? Part-timers might account for labor-force surge
The illusion continues.
More jobs: part time; lower pay; less hours.
Hooray! We're off to see the Wizard! PB
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From MarketWatch.com:
The number of able-bodied Americans entering the labor force has surged since last fall.
What’s going on?
It’s hard to say for sure, but circumstantial evidence in the latest U.S. jobs report suggests many of these newly employed workers have found part-time work with mediocre pay.
But it doesn’t appear that companies are taking the first person they find and loading them up with work.
Consider so-called involuntary part-time workers. These are people who would prefer a full-time job or more hours if they were available.
Hiring has been particularly strong in the past six months at retail stores and restaurants, where both pay and the number of hours employees work lags behind the national average.
The number of hours the average person works each weak, meanwhile, has fallen several ticks since the beginning of the year.
And wage growth has leveled off after touching a post-recession high several months ago.
Both are signs of a shift in hiring toward lower-paying jobs with fewer hours.
“The good news is that most of them have quickly found jobs,” speculated Steven Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities.
“The bad news is that most of those jobs, as you would expect, have been relatively low paying and many are only offering part-time hours.”
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Link: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/part-timers-might-account-for-labor-force-surge-2016-04-01
More jobs: part time; lower pay; less hours.
Hooray! We're off to see the Wizard! PB
------
From MarketWatch.com:
The number of able-bodied Americans entering the labor force has surged since last fall.
What’s going on?
It’s hard to say for sure, but circumstantial evidence in the latest U.S. jobs report suggests many of these newly employed workers have found part-time work with mediocre pay.
But it doesn’t appear that companies are taking the first person they find and loading them up with work.
Consider so-called involuntary part-time workers. These are people who would prefer a full-time job or more hours if they were available.
Hiring has been particularly strong in the past six months at retail stores and restaurants, where both pay and the number of hours employees work lags behind the national average.
The number of hours the average person works each weak, meanwhile, has fallen several ticks since the beginning of the year.
And wage growth has leveled off after touching a post-recession high several months ago.
Both are signs of a shift in hiring toward lower-paying jobs with fewer hours.
“The good news is that most of them have quickly found jobs,” speculated Steven Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities.
“The bad news is that most of those jobs, as you would expect, have been relatively low paying and many are only offering part-time hours.”
------
Link: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/part-timers-might-account-for-labor-force-surge-2016-04-01
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