Sunday, June 29, 2014

Pope Francis: Communists are really Christians - and Poverty is at the Center of the Gospel

PB: Who is not doing enough to share their wealth with the poor?
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From Reuters.com:

Pope Francis: "I can only say that the communists have stolen our flag.

"The flag of the poor is Christian.

"Poverty is at the center of the Gospel," he said, citing Biblical passages about the need to help the poor, the sick and the needy.

"Communists say that all this is communism. Sure, twenty centuries later.

"So when they speak, one can say to them: 'but then you are Christian'," he said, laughing.

Since his election in March 2013, Francis has often attacked the global economic system as being insensitive to the poor and not doing enough to share wealth with those who need it most...
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Link: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/29/us-pope-communism

Friday, June 27, 2014

Yellin' at Yellen does no good: Middle Class shrinks, Wage Growth stinks, but Ben & Barry's Billionaire Ice Cream keeps Dem Big Boys Fat!

PB: Wages have clearly lagged since the Great Recession hit as the chart below explains.

The Middle Class will continue to shrink for years to come, just as dependency on government transfers will not shrink.  The long term effects of weak wage growth will become more and more socially visible - if and when anyone bothers to look.

Economic growth will remain cursed for a long time as the U.S. continues to morph into the Japan of the West.

Yellin' at Yellen will do no good: she'll keep letting the Fed pour Dem Tasty Flavors into the 'Ben & Barry's Billionaire Ice Cream' Bowls of Fattening Food (= ridiculously low interest rates.)


From Reuters.com:



CLICK Image to enlarge
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Link: http://blogs.reuters.com/data-dive/2014/06/27/wage-growth-still-stagnant/

Wednesday, June 25, 2014

Economy Shrank in 1st Quarter by Most in 5 Years

From Bloomberg.com:

The U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter by the most since the depths of the last recession as consumer spending cooled.

Gross domestic product fell at a 2.9 percent annualized rate, more than forecast and the worst reading since the same three months in 2009, after a previously reported 1 percent drop, the Commerce Department said today in Washington.

It marked the biggest downward revision from the agency’s second GDP estimate since records began in 1976. The revision reflected a slowdown in health care spending...
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Link: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-25/economy-in-u-s-shrank-in-first-quarter-by-most-in-five-years.html

Tuesday, June 24, 2014

David Stockman: The Junk Bomb Ticking Beneath The S&P 500

From DavidStockmansContraCorner.com:

The Fed has become a serial bubble machine over the last two decades, and cheap debt is the driving force.



Note that before each cyclical peak of the S&P 500 that junk bond yields plunge into new cyclical lows as measured by the dotted boxes.

And during each of the three bubble cycles shown here the boxes dip lower in absolute terms, meaning that junk bonds and risk have been increasingly mis-priced owing to central bank financial repression.

Thus, with the Merrill high yield index nearing an all-time low yield of 5%, the implication is astonishing.

Namely, that with the CPI having just clocked in at 2.1% y/y, the real yield on junk bonds is barely 3%! 

Yet history proves losses can reach double digits when the bubbles crashes.

During the 2008-2009 meltdown, for example, yields rose from 7% to 23%, implying devastating losses for speculators on leverage and bond funds managers subject to redemption.

Needless to say, those categories encompassed most of the bond holders at the time...
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Link: http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/the-junk-bomb-ticking-beneath-the-sp-500/

Sunday, June 22, 2014

Reuters: GM's Board Warned in 2002

From Reuters.com:

A former head of General Motors corporate quality audit warned the company’s board in a letter in 2002 that it needed to “stop the continued shipment of unsafe vehicles” and “recall suspect vehicles that were already in customers’ hands.”

The letter from William McAleer shows that GM's directors and top management were told about serious safety defects in vehicles that were coming off the company’s production lines more than 11 years before GM recalled millions of vehicles for faulty ignition switches linked to at least 13 deaths. The contents have not been previously published.

GM spokesman Jim Cain said he was unable to address the details of the events 12 years ago, but that the company would take such concerns seriously today...
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Link: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/21/us-gm-recall-idUSKBN0EW02O20140621

Saturday, June 21, 2014

Housing Market Fizzles Amid Rising Prices, Lower-Paying Jobs

From Bloomberg.com:

[The housing market has] been sideswiped by rising home prices and an economy that isn’t producing higher paying jobs.

The share of Americans who said they planned to buy a home in the next six months plunged to 4.9 percent last month from 7.4 percent at the end of 2013, the highest in records going back to 1964, according to the Conference Board.

“The big housing rally wiped itself out because prices increased too quickly for buyers to keep up,” said Richard Hastings, a consumer strategist ... who predicted the slowdown eight months ago.

“The pool of eligible new buyers is collapsing” because of stagnant incomes and lack of credit, he said...

In April, the median income was $52,959.

When adjusted for inflation, that’s almost 6 percent lower than in June 2009, which marked the beginning of the economic recovery, said Gordon Green ...who formerly directed the Census Bureau office that compiles wage statistics.

“Even though we’re technically in a recovery, household income is lower now than it was in the recession,” Green said.

“It makes it a lot harder to buy a house.” 
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Link: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-20/housing-falters-as-forecasters-see-u-s-sales-dropping.html

Tuesday, June 17, 2014

7 - 5 - 3 - you're the 1 making the decisions!

From MarketWatch.com:

7 reasons why you made less than the market

  1. Investors are unskilled
  2. The more you look at your portfolio, the more you’ll trade
  3. Having no plan
  4. Performance chasing
  5. Overconfidence
  6. Portfolio dissecting
  7. Short-termism


From USA Today:

5 brain flaws that make you a lousy investor

  1. Trading bias.
  2. Recency effect.
  3. Sunk cost fallacy.
  4. Overconfidence effect.
  5. Prospect theory or “framing”.


From Money magazine:

3 Bad Reasons We Pay So Much For Mutual Funds

  1. Using an active fund as a de facto financial adviser.
  2. Going active to get a tilt.
  3. That enterprising feeling.
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Sunday, June 15, 2014

Father's Day: Babies Pay for Detroit’s 60-Year Slide With Mortality Above Mexico's

From Bloomberg.com:

Detroit's 60-year deterioration has taken a toll not just on business owners, investors and taxpayers.

It’s meant misery for its most vulnerable: children and the women who bear them.

While infant mortality fell for decades across the U.S., progress bypassed Detroit, which in 2012 saw a greater proportion of babies die before their first birthdays than any American city, a rate higher than in China, Mexico and Thailand.

Pregnancy-related deaths helped put Michigan’s maternal mortality rate in the bottom fifth among states.

One in three pregnancies in the city is terminated...

Detroit’s crisis is a foot on the neck of women and children.

Mothers’ obesity, diabetes, poverty-related stress and poor nutrition can harm infants even before they are born...

Health isn’t determined just by poverty, but by race, which plays a disproportionate role in Detroit. Blacks composed 84 percent of residents in 2010, according to the census.

Black babies in neighborhoods with the lowest poverty level are more likely to die than white infants in neighborhoods with the highest poverty, according to a state report last year.

In 2010, non-whites made up 21 percent of Michigan’s population but 43 percent of infant deaths...

Almost half of Detroit women who move forward with pregnancy don’t receive adequate prenatal care...

That can lead to premature birth, the leading cause of infant mortality, whose rate hit 15 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2012, state data show. That’s the highest of any U.S. city and more than double the national average.

It also compares unfavorably to Mexico’s 14 deaths per 1,000 live births, China’s 12 and Thailand’s 11, according to the World Bank...
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Link: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-11/babies-pay-for-detroit-s-fall-with-mortality-above-mexico.html

Saturday, June 14, 2014

WSJ - The Downside of Low Interest Rates: Reluctant Home Sellers

From the Wall Street Journal online:

Historically low interest rates likely will haunt the U.S. housing market by deterring homeowners from selling in future years after rates rise, housing economists say.

Economists theorize that, in the so-called rate lockdown effect, homeowners that landed mortgages in recent years with rates 3.5% to 4% might be reluctant to sell their homes in the coming years, which would cause them to forfeit the rock-bottom rates on their existing mortgages.

Rates for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages, now at 4.2%, are widely forecast to reach 5% by next year....

“We’ve locked all of these people into these low rates, mostly in 30-year fixed mortgages,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist at real estate data firm CoreLogic Inc., at the conference.

There’s a huge disincentive … to sell at any point in the future. My expectation is that housing turnover rates will be down significantly in the future due to this rate lockout effect.”

Earlier this year, researchers at DePaul University’s Institute for Housing Studies in Chicago issued a paper on the lockdown effect.

Their projection: Even though rising prices in recent years have brought more home sellers into the market, any steep rise in interest rates likely would nullify that influx by causing more homeowners to want to stay put and thus keep their low interest rates.

Another potential effect of the lockdown effect: An increase in novice landlords. Some economists say homeowners who must move might opt to hang onto their former home and rent it out to keep the low interest rate on the mortgage...
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Link: http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/06/13/the-downside-of-low-interest-rates-reluctant-home-sellers/

Tuesday, June 10, 2014

NYT: For young people, a long trend of increasing economic hardship

From the New York Times online:

Today’s young people, ages 18 to 24, should have been the lucky ones. They were preteens or teenagers when the recession hit in late 2007, with high school and college still ahead.

Unlike those who had to enter the work force in the depths of the downturn, they had time, or so it seemed, to wait out the weak economy.

But that’s not how things have worked out...

For young people, these conditions will only deepen a long trend of increasing economic hardship.

Census data that compares today’s 18-to-24-year-olds with the same age group in 1970 and in 1990 show more poverty among young adults over time, as well as lower income and less independence.

But young people today are appreciably worse off than those in previous generations...

For young people who are on their own, either living alone or with housemates or spouses, median household income, recently $30,604, is nearly $4,600 less than in 1970 and virtually unchanged since 1990, adjusted for inflation.

Lack of opportunity and lack of resources mean a smaller share of young high school and college graduates are relocating, traditionally a way up a career ladder...

Underemployment — which includes those who are officially unemployed, those who want to work but haven’t looked recently for a job and those stuck in part-time jobs — is 16.8 percent.

Equally worrisome, 44 percent of young college graduates in 2012 were working in jobs that didn’t require a college degree (versus 38 percent before the recession in 2007), according to data from researchers at the Federal Reserve.

In 2000, half of college-educated workers in jobs that didn’t require a degree were in generally well-paid professions, working as electricians, for example, or dental hygienists.

Now they are more likely to be waiters, bartenders or cashiers...
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Link: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/08/opinion/sunday/starting-out-behind

Friday, June 6, 2014

"We are the ones we've been waiting for!"

Then candidate Sen. Obama on Youtube:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=molWTfv8TYw
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From Money.CNN.com:

The American Dream is impossible to achieve in this country.

So say nearly 6 in 10 people who responded to CNNMoney's American Dream Poll, conducted by ORC International.

They feel the dream -- however they define it -- is out of reach.

Young adults, age 18 to 34, are most likely to feel the dream is unattainable, with 63% saying it's impossible.

This age group has suffered in the wake of the Great Recession, finding it hard to get good jobs.

Younger Americans are a cause of great concern.

Many respondents said they are worried about the next generation's ability to prosper.

Some 63% of all Americans said most children in the U.S. won't be better off than their parents.

This dour view comes despite most respondents, 54%, feeling they are better off than their own parents...
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Link: http://money.cnn.com/2014/06/04/news/economy/american-dream/index.html

Middle Wage has been replaced by Low Wage

From the American Enterprise Institute online:

And, of course, the mix of jobs during the recovery has meant middle-wage has been replaced by low wage:

Note:
A few million higher wage jobs lost - more millions lower wage jobs gained.

A burger flipper economy!
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Link: http://www.aei-ideas.org/2014/06/may-jobs-report-americas-leftovers-7-million-missing-workers/

23.5 million Americans are looking for a job, or more hours

From MarketWatch.com:

As of May, 23.5 million Americans either want a job, or want to work full-time but can’t because of the weak economy.

This “army of the unemployed” is down nearly 5 million from the peak of 30.4 million four years ago, but it’s up 7.5 million from the pre-recession level of 16 million.

That means the “real” unemployment rate is about 14.5%, compared with a low of around 10% just before the recession hit.

This includes all the people who are looking for work, plus those who aren’t looking but say they want a job, plus those who are working part-time but want a full-time job...
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Link: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-most-important-number-in-the-jobs-report-2014-06-06

Wednesday, June 4, 2014

Half of Americans can’t afford their house

From MarketWatch.com:

Over half of Americans (52%) have had to make at least one major sacrifice in order to cover their rent or mortgage over the last three years, according to the “How Housing Matters Survey,” which was commissioned by the nonprofit MacArthur Foundation...

These sacrifices include getting a second job, deferring saving for retirement, cutting back on health care, running up credit card debt, or even moving to a less safe neighborhood or one with worse schools.

Affordability issues are real and a major hurdle,” says Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, an industry group.

Home prices have increased 20% over the past two years while wages have barely gone up, he says...
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Link: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/over-50-of-americans-struggle-with-home-affordability-2014-06-03

Sunday, June 1, 2014

Weak Wages Pose Threat to Economy

From the Wall Street Journal online:

A long-awaited liftoff in the U.S. economy is facing pressure from stubbornly weak wage growth, muddying the outlook for consumers and challenging Federal Reserve policy makers who are counting on a pickup as they unwind the central bank's extraordinary support for the recovery.

Growth in wage and salary income slowed to just 0.2% in April from the prior month, marking the weakest monthly increase of the year...After adjusting for inflation, wage and salary income was up 2% from a year earlier.


"It's a question not just of quantity but also of quality" of the new jobs being created, with many temporary or part-time jobs coming in low-paying industries, said (Sterne Agee chief economist Lindsey Piegza)
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Link:http://online.wsj.com/articles/consumer-spending-fell-0-1-in-april-1401453354?